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中国奶业竞争力国际比较及发展思路

刘长全1,2 韩磊1,2 张元红1

(1.中国社会科学院农村发展研究所)
(2.中国社会科学院农村发展研究所畜牧业经济研究中心)

【摘要】本文从绝对优势、比较优势和品牌竞争力三个角度系统分析了中国奶业竞争力及其国际比较情况, 并探讨了中国奶业竞争力不足的主要原因, 在此基础上提出中国奶业转型发展的思路。研究表明, 中国奶业竞争力不足表现在成本与价格大幅高于奶业发达国家、乳制品消费存在明显的进口偏好和贸易竞争力指数趋于下降等方面;奶业国际竞争力不足既有资源禀赋原因, 也与偏低的技术进步贡献、过快的规模化过程及不利的贸易条件和国内外农业政策相关。提升奶业竞争力需要通过推进适度规模养殖和种养一体化以及提高技术进步贡献率来提高效率、降低成本;通过加强乳制品质量建设, 提升消费者信心和“中国奶业”品牌竞争力;通过完善奶业管理体制与奶业政策, 巩固奶业发展的养殖业基础。

【关键词】 奶业;竞争力;国际比较;消费者信心;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 农业农村部国家奶牛产业技术体系 (编号:CARS-36) 产业经济研究室“全球化背景下中国奶业转型发展研究”项目的阶段性成果;

International comparison and development suggestions of China’s dairy industry competitiveness

LIU Changquan1,2 HAN Lei ZHANG Yuanhong

(1.Rural Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
(2.Animal Husbandry Economic Research Center, Rural Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

【Abstract】This paper systematically analyzes the competitiveness of China’s dairy industry from the perspectives of absolute advantage, comparative advantage and brand competitiveness, and conducts an international comparison. It also discusses the main reasons for a lack of competitiveness of China’s dairy industry and proposes measures to improve its competitiveness. The study shows that the cost and price of dairy products in China are much higher than those in the developed countries. China’s consumers express an obvious preference for the imported products, and trade competitiveness index tends to decline. It also shows that a lack of international competitiveness of China’s dairy industry is not only caused by the resource endowment, but also by a low level of technology contribution, over-rapid scaling-up, unfavorable trade conditions and domestic and foreign policies in the agricultural sector. To enhance the competitiveness of China’s dairy industry, it is necessary to improve efficiency and reduce cost by promoting appropriate scale farming, improving integration of dairy and crop farming, and increasing the contribution rate of technological progress. There is also a need to improve consumers’ confidence and brand competitiveness of China dairy by strengthening quality construction of dairy products. It is equally important to consolidate the foundation of the dairy farming sector by improving the management system and policies of the dairy industry.

【Keywords】 dairy industry; competitiveness; international comparison; consumer confidence;

【DOI】

【Funds】 National Dairy Industry Technical System, Industrial Economics Research Office of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (CARS-36);

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① Source:Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. 农业农村部: 我国奶业迈进全面振兴新时期, http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2018/0525/c1004-30014956.html [^Back]

    [2]. ② Same as ①. [^Back]

    [3]. ① Sources of per capita dairy consumption in developed countries: Holstein magazine (荷斯坦) & Beijing Oriental Dairui Dairy Information Consulting Co., Ltd. (eds.). 2017 China Dairy Statistics (2017年中国奶业统计资料). Beijing: Holstein Magazine, (2018). [^Back]

    [4]. ② According to the market monitoring data of the Ministry of Commerce (http://cif.mofcom.gov.cn/cif/html/marketDatas/index.html?nfcpgnxh_224058=), at the end of December 2016, the average price of milk and yogurt in the domestic market was CNY 11.32/L and CNY 14.08/kg respectively. [^Back]

    [5]. ① Infant formula was not included. [^Back]

    [6]. ① The calculation formula for TC, RCA and CA is TCij= (XijMij) / (Xij + Mij) , RCAij = (Xij / Xit) / (Xwj/ Xwt), and CAij = RCAij − (Mij/ Mit) / (Mwj / Mwt) respectively. Among them, Xij represents the export value of the jth product of country i; Mij represents the import value of the jth product of country i; Xit represents the export value of all products of country i; Xwj represents the export value of the jth product of the world; Xwt represents the export value of all products in the world; Mit represents the import value of all products in country i; Mwj represents the import value of the world jth product; and Mwt represents the import value of all products in the world. [^Back]

    [7]. ② Dairy products used for comparison include sections in the SITC (third edition): coded 022 (milk, cream and other dairy products other than butter and cheese), 023 (butter and other dairy fats) and 024 (cheese and curd). For the purpose of summing up and comparison, this article compares the amount of import and export trade denominated in US dollars. [^Back]

    [8]. ① Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission (eds.). Compilation of Cost-Benefit Data for Agricultural Products in China (全国农产品成本收益资料汇编) (2007–2017, calendar year). Beijing: China Statistics Press. [^Back]

    [9]. ② The CIF import price of corn is the price of the United States Gulf of Mexico Grade 2 yellow corn (protein content 12%) shipped to Huangpu Port. The domestic price is the closing price of the Grade 2 yellow corn of Northeast China shipped to Huangpu Port of Guangzhou. The exchange rate between USD and CNY at the time of price conversion is calculated as the average value of the intermediate exchange rate of 1:6.5942 on all trading days of the month. Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. 2017 年12月农产品供需形势分析月报(大宗农产品) http://www.moa.gov.cn/ztzl/nybrl/rlxx/201801/t20180119_6135318.htm [^Back]

    [10]. ③ Source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/feed-grainsyearbook-tables.aspx [^Back]

    [11]. Holstein magazine (荷斯坦) & Beijing Oriental Dairui Dairy Information Consulting Co., Ltd. (eds.). 2017 China Dairy Statistics (2017年中国奶业统计资料). Beijing: Holstein Magazine, (2018). [^Back]

    [12]. ① Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission (eds.). Compilation of Cost-Benefit Data for Agricultural Products in China (全国农产品成本收益资料汇编) (2007–2017, calendar year). Beijing: China Statistics Press. [^Back]

    [13]. ② The average size of Canada and Japan includes the size of the entire group of adult cows, young cattle and yaks. Canadian data were from the Statistics of the Canadian Dairy Industry of2011 and 2016 (http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.500489/publication.html). Japanese data were from Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries yearly 畜産統計調査 (http://www.maff.go.jp/j/tokei/kouhyou/tikusan/). [^Back]

    [14]. ① The maximum size of subsidies for dairy farmers in France is 50, both to encourage moderate-scale farming and to promote the development of small and medium-sized farmers. [^Back]

    [15]. ② The dairy farming community is a place where a number of independent retail investors and small-scale farmers concentrate on farming. The farming community and dairy cows belong to different owners. According to different development models, dairy farming in the breeding community can be managed by independent farmers separately or managed centrally by the community. [^Back]

    [16]. ① Source: WTO, ITC and UNCTAD, 2016, “World Tariff Profiles 2016”, World Trade Organization. The average tariff level of non-agricultural products in China ranked 112th. Relatively speaking, China’s tariff protection level for agricultural products was slightly lower than that of non-agricultural products. [^Back]

    [17]. ② Special safeguard measures are applied to the milk powders with tax number 4022100 and 4022900. [^Back]

    [18]. ③ According to Europe Union Farm Accountancy Data Network (http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/rica/database), in 2016, the net income after offsetting subsidy income and tax expenditures accounted for an average of 33% of the gross income of dairy farmers in the EU, and an average of 72% of net income. [^Back]

    [19]. ④ According to the authors’ investigation, shipping costs for liquid milk produced in Germany are only equivalent to CNY 0.1/kg from Hamburg, Germany to China. [^Back]

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    5. Yang, Y., Wang, G. & Pan, X. (eds.) China Food Composition 2nd Edition (中国食物成分表2009(第二版)). Beijing: Peking University Medical Press, (2009).

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This Article

ISSN:1002-8870

CN: 11-1262/F

Vol , No. 07, Pages 130-144

July 2018

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Difficulties faced by China’s dairy industry in production, consumption and trade
  • 3 International comparison of China’s dairy industry competitiveness
  • 4 Main reasons for the lack of competitiveness of China’s dairy industry
  • 5 Ideas for enhancing the competitiveness of China’s dairy industry
  • Footnote

    References