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自由贸易区战略背景下中国农业供给侧结构优化研究——基于中国已签订13个自由贸易协定农产品贸易的模拟分析

周曙东1,2 卢祥1 郑建1 肖宵1

(1.南京农业大学经济管理学院)
(2.南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心)

【摘要】本文根据中国签署的13个自由贸易协定中的关税削减方案,用一般均衡模型模拟分析了自由贸易协定的实施对中国农业的影响,探讨了多重自由贸易协定关税削减方案的叠加效应,并探讨了中国农业供给侧结构调整策略。模拟结果显示,在13个自由贸易协定全部实施后,中国的活动物、肉类、奶类、动植物油和食糖产业部门会受到进口冲击,而蔬菜、水果、粳稻和其他作物产业具有出口潜力。为此,在自由贸易区战略的大背景下,本文提出中国农业产业结构的优化方案:适度调减活动物、肉类、奶类、食糖和动植物油产业的产能;在具有出口潜力的产业部门,可以适当调增蔬菜和温带水果、粳稻和其他作物的产能,通过调整结构趋利避害来应对冲击,主动实施农业供给侧结构调整。

【关键词】 自由贸易协定;农业供给侧结构性改革;结构调整;GTAP模型;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社会科学基金重大项目“农产品安全、气候变化与农业生产转型研究”(编号:13&ZD160); 国家现代农业(花生)产业技术体系——产业经济(编号:CARS-13); 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目;

Supply-side structural optimization of the agricultural industry in China under the FTA strategy: a simulation analysis of agricultural products trade based on China’s 13 FTA agreements

Zhou Shudong1,2 Lu Xiang Zheng Jian Xiao Xiao

(1.College of Economics and Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural Uuniversity)
(2.China Food Security Research Center, Nanjing Agricultural University)

【Abstract】Based on the tariff reduction among 13 signed FTA agreements by the Chinese government, this paper conducts a simulation of the impacts of 13 FTA agreements on China’s agricultural production with a computable general equilibriummodel, exploring the superposition effect of the tariff preference scheme in multiple FTAs, and the optimal strategies of agricultural structure adjustment on the supply side. The results show that sectors of live animals, meat, dairy products, sugar, and edible oils could suffer from import shocks, while sectors of rice, vegetable and fruit, oil crops and other industries could have export potentials. The study provides an optimal solution to agricultural structural adjustment, by reducing production capacity of sectors such as live animals, meat, dairy products, sugar, edible oils and increasing production capacity of sectors such as vegetable and fruits in temperate zone, japonica rice and other products with export potentials. Through this structural adjustment, China can carry out the supply side reform in an active manner in case of import shocks.

【Keywords】 FTA; supply-side structural reform in agriculture; structural adjustment; GTAP model;

【DOI】

【Funds】 National Social Science Fund of China (13&ZD160); China Agriculture (Peanut) Research System: Industry Economy (CARS-13); Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions;

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① Data source: calculated according to UN Comtrade (https://comtrade.un.org/data/). [^Back]

    [2]. ① https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/models/Dynamic/Baseline/default.asp [^Back]

    [3]. ② http://dongman.12312.gov.cn/index.shtml [^Back]

    [4]. ①According to corresponding relation among HS02, HS07 and HS12 in WTO tariff database. [^Back]

    [5]. ① Calculated according to tariff concession agreement. [^Back]

    [6]. ① Some experts think that grain depot of China has excessive rice reserves, and National Development and Reform Commission worries about grain overstock. In fact, grain overstock in national treasury results from the minimum grain purchase price policy conducted by China for a long term, and SINOGRAIN’s grain purchase with large amount. This is the problem of China’s internal policy orientation, and has nothing to do with study herein. In addition, China’s grain inventory is confidential. No further discussion will be made herein. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1002-8870

CN: 11-1262/F

Vol , No. 04, Pages 28-40

April 2018

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Literature overview
  • 3 Study method and simulation plan
  • 4 Simulation result analysis
  • 5 Analysis on supply-side structure adjustment strategy of the agricultural industry in China
  • 6 Conclusion and policy suggestion
  • Footnote

    References