Supply-side structural optimization of the agricultural industry in China under the FTA strategy: a simulation analysis of agricultural products trade based on China’s 13 FTA agreements
(2.China Food Security Research Center, Nanjing Agricultural University)
【Abstract】Based on the tariff reduction among 13 signed FTA agreements by the Chinese government, this paper conducts a simulation of the impacts of 13 FTA agreements on China’s agricultural production with a computable general equilibriummodel, exploring the superposition effect of the tariff preference scheme in multiple FTAs, and the optimal strategies of agricultural structure adjustment on the supply side. The results show that sectors of live animals, meat, dairy products, sugar, and edible oils could suffer from import shocks, while sectors of rice, vegetable and fruit, oil crops and other industries could have export potentials. The study provides an optimal solution to agricultural structural adjustment, by reducing production capacity of sectors such as live animals, meat, dairy products, sugar, edible oils and increasing production capacity of sectors such as vegetable and fruits in temperate zone, japonica rice and other products with export potentials. Through this structural adjustment, China can carry out the supply side reform in an active manner in case of import shocks.
【Keywords】 FTA; supply-side structural reform in agriculture; structural adjustment; GTAP model;
. ① Data source: calculated according to UN Comtrade (https://comtrade.un.org/data/). [^Back]
. ① https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/models/Dynamic/Baseline/default.asp [^Back]
. ② http://dongman.12312.gov.cn/index.shtml [^Back]
. ①According to corresponding relation among HS02, HS07 and HS12 in WTO tariff database. [^Back]
. ① Calculated according to tariff concession agreement. [^Back]
. ① Some experts think that grain depot of China has excessive rice reserves, and National Development and Reform Commission worries about grain overstock. In fact, grain overstock in national treasury results from the minimum grain purchase price policy conducted by China for a long term, and SINOGRAIN’s grain purchase with large amount. This is the problem of China’s internal policy orientation, and has nothing to do with study herein. In addition, China’s grain inventory is confidential. No further discussion will be made herein. [^Back]
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