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农产品出口多样性、普遍性与农业增长

叶初升1,2 邹欣1,2

(1.武汉大学经济发展研究中心)
(2.武汉大学经济与管理学院)

【摘要】不同国家农产品出口的种类(多样性)以及每种农产品的供应国(普遍性)都各不相同。少有研究注意到农产品出口普遍性在农产品出口多样性中的重要作用。本文利用164个国家394种农产品1986~2012年的数据,通过构建一个简单的理论模型,阐述了农产品出口多样性是如何通过出口普遍性影响农业增长的。研究结果表明,农产品出口多样性对农业增长有显著的促进作用;在农产品出口普遍性较高的国家,农产品出口多样性对其农业增长没有明显作用;而在农产品出口普遍性较低的国家,农产品出口多样性对其农业增长有显著的正向作用。此外,农产品出口多样性对农业增长的促进作用是建立在贸易保护基础上的。

【关键词】 农产品出口;出口多样性;农业增长;出口普遍性;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“贫困与发展:以穷人为中心的发展经济学微观分析”(项目编号:12FJL012); 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“当代发展经济学前沿理论跟踪研究”(项目编号:13JJD790020); 中央高校基本科研业务费武汉大学人文社会科学研究重点项目“农村贫困、亲贫制度创新与和谐发展”资助;

Export diversity and ubiquity of agricultural products and agricultural growth

YE Chusheng1,2 ZOU Xin1,2

(1.Economic development research center of Wuhan University)
(2.Economic and management school of Wuhan University)

【Abstract】The kinds of export of agricultural products (diversity) in different countries and the supplier of each agricultural product (ubiquity) are different. Few studies pointed out the importance of the export ubiquity of agricultural products on the export diversity. This paper used the data on 394 kinds of agricultural products in 164 countries from 1986 to 2012 to construct a simple theoretical model, which described how the export diversity of agricultural products affected agricultural growth through export ubiquity. Analytical results showed that the export diversity of agricultural products had a significant effect on agricultural growth. In countries with high export ubiquity, the export diversity of agricultural products had insignificant influences on agricultural growth. While in countries with low export ubiquity, the influence was significant and positive. Besides, that the export diversity of agricultural products promotes agricultural growth was based on trade protection.

【Keywords】 export of agricultural product; export diversity; agricultural growth; export ubiquity;

【DOI】

【Funds】 the post-funded project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (12FJL012); the Major Project of Key Research Bases of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education (13JJD790020); the Major Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Research of Wuhan University from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.;

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① With regard to export diversity, Dennis and Shepherd (2007) defined it as an increase in the scope of products exported of a country. However, according to the structure of export, export diversity can also be divided into horizontal diversity and vertical diversity (Herzer and Nowak-Lehnmann, 2006). Horizontal diversity refers to the increase in the kinds of products exported, while vertical diversity refers to the change in the ratio between the exported primary products and industrial products. The export diversity of agricultural products studied in this paper refers to the horizontal diversity, namely, the kinds of agricultural products exported. [^Back]

    [2]. ② The Ricardo model measures the comparative advantage from the perspective of labor productivity. The Heckscher-Ohlin model measures the comparative advantage from the perspective of resource endowments. [^Back]

    [3]. ① By calculating the ratio between the value of agricultural raw materials exported to the agricultural output value in 164 countries from 1986 to 2012, it was found that the ratio of countries with a standard deviation below 0.1 was more than 83.7%. This showed that for the vast majority of countries, the ratio between the export value of agricultural products and agricultural output value during 1986 and 2012 did not change greatly. Therefore, it was assumed that the ratio of the export value of agricultural products to the agricultural output value was given exogenously. [^Back]

    [4]. ① Because of the limited data, the control variables selected here are macro-level variables, and the level of economic development in a country is closely related to the factors of agricultural production and the rate of technological progress. Therefore, controlling macro variables also has certain rationality. [^Back]

    [5]. ① Generally, RCA= 1 is used as the critical value. When RCA ≥ 1, the comparative advantage is considered to be strong. When 0 ≤ RCA < 1, the comparative advantage is weak. In this paper, two standards of divisions are used, namely RCA= 0.5 and RCA= 1. The standard when RCA= 0.5 is weaker than the standard when RCA= 1, and more products are included in the calculation of the export diversity of agricultural products. [^Back]

    [6]. ① Item u1 is calculated according to Equation (16). Due to the difference in the standard of classification, when RCA ≥ 0.5, it is abbreviated as u1. [^Back]

    [7]. ② As shown in Table 2, the mean of u1 is 17.64. For convenience, it is taken as the integer 18. [^Back]

    [8]. ③ Item u2 is calculated according to Equation (16). Due to differences in the standard of classification, when RCA ≥ 1, it is abbreviated as u2. [^Back]

    [9]. ④ As shown in Table 2, the mean of u2 is 13.43. For convenience, it is taken as the integer 14. [^Back]

    [10]. ⑤ The classification of agricultural products refers to the FAO standard (see: http://faostat3.fao.org/mes/classifications/E). And 423 kinds of agricultural products are included in the FAO database. However, after the deletion of agricultural products with more missing values from 1986 to 2012, there are 394 kinds of agricultural products. FAO reclassified the agricultural products and categorized the products with similar properties into the same group. For example, some of the primary processed agricultural products are classified into one group according to a certain standard. Therefore, basically, it is not necessary to consider the increase in the kinds of agricultural products caused by the increase in the quantity of primary processed agricultural products in developed countries. [^Back]

    [11]. ⑥ FAO database: http: //www.fao.org/statistics/databases/en; World Bank database: http://data.worldbank.org.cn. [^Back]

    [12]. ① Both d1 and d2are above 100. [^Back]

    [13]. ② Both d1 and d2 are below 10. [^Back]

    [14]. ① The 37 kinds of agricultural products exported are barley wine, distilled alcoholic beverages, bran, palm kernel, cigarettes, roasted coffee, raw materials, myrtle and Japan wax, flour, food residue, dehydrated milk, distilled milk, fresh milk, nuts, palm oil, pastry, dry natural rubber, refined sugar, converted sugar, tea, sweets, fresh vegetables, vegetables to make vinegar, creamy concentrated whey, wheat, cocoa, coffee extract, coffee beans, raw tobacco, tomatoes, baby food, malt, beef, tobacco products, scallion, onions, palm kernel oil and products with stems peeled, dried, and grounded. [^Back]

    [15]. ① That is the 14th index, namely ucountryit in measurement of index in the fourth section. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1002-8870

CN: 11-1262/F

Vol , No. 03, Pages 82-96

March 2016

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Literature review
  • 3 Construction of models
  • 4 Measurement of index and description of data
  • 5 Estimation of model
  • 6 Conclusions and policy implications
  • Footnote

    References