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有效破解粮食安全问题的新思路:着力发展牧草产业

王明利1

(1.中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所)

【摘要】2003~2014年,中国粮食生产实现了“十一连增”。与此同时,中国农业也面临着诸如水土资源短缺、产品质量安全问题突出、生态环境压力加大、生产效率仍然不高等突出制约。传统解决粮食安全问题的思路必须更新,必须从一个全新的、更广的角度重新思考解决粮食安全问题之策。本文提出,应从整个食物系统来重新定位粮食安全,当前中国粮食安全问题本质上是饲料粮的安全问题,说到底是畜产品的充足供应和质量安全问题。中国农业结构基本上每隔20年左右调整一次,从上世纪50年代中期到改革开放前是“以粮为纲”的单一结构,从1978年到1992年期间是“粮+经”的二元种植结构,从1992年到目前阶段是“粮+经+饲”的三元种植结构。目前中国农业结构又进入了一个新的调整“窗口期”。当前的“粮+经+饲”种植结构中,饲料作物种植面积占比实际上已达20%以上,但牧草种植面积占比一直徘徊在1%左右,牧草产业发展长期停滞不前。必须将牧草产业引入农业生产系统中,推进实施“粮+经+饲+草”的四元种植结构,从而达到直接或间接增加粮食产量,直接或间接降低对粮食的消耗,最终实现多元途径解决粮食安全问题的目标。

【关键词】 牧草产业;粮食安全;食物安全;种植结构;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家自然科学基金项目“我国肉牛产业发展规律及财政扶持政策研究”(编号:71173220); 国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(编号:CARS-35-22); 国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目(编号:2012BAC20B03)的研究成果;

Fintech and financial analysts in the market

【Abstract】The rise of Fintech has significantly affected the financial service industry. Investors can easily acquire the financial information they need from Fintech information aggregation platforms. They can even place orders directly through a platform. By publishing, sorting, integrating, and redistributing investment information, these platforms have changed the relationship between the supply of financial information and the production process, thereby changing the behaviors of traditional information providers (analysts). In this paper, we explored the influence of Fintech platforms on the securities analysts market. We used A-share listed companies in China from 2010 to 2018 as the sample. We combined the data for Chinese Fintech enterprise databases and various reports of listed companies in CSMAR to set up a Fintech index. Next, we conducted empirical tests on the influencing mechanisms. The research findings show that Fintech platforms focusing on financial information services have a significant substitution effect on the analysts market. In terms of the information supply market, the proportion of analyst reports decreases gradually. According to the empirical analysis of the “Guba” platform, investors’ reading and comments on analysts’ reports decrease. This substitution effect eventually results in less effective information contributed by analysts in the information demand market (the stock exchange market). However, the substitution effect of Fintech seems to be less significant with the “CSI 300 index,” listed companies that have attracted much attention from the public, listed companies with active analyst reports, and listed companies in eastern China. This result shows that Fintech mainly erodes the financial information market that analysts have ignored. This paper has made the following contributions. First, although Fintech related businesses and services have gradually penetrated the financial market, corresponding research is still insufficient. The existing literature primarily focuses on macro aspects of, reasons for, and roadmaps of Fintech development, and explores supervisory and policy suggestions. This paper focuses on the micro level, studying the influence of Fintech platforms in the information service field on the behaviors of market participants. In contrast with previous studies, this study provides an in-depth expansion of its results. Second, a lack of measurement indices restricts the development of academic research in the Fintech field. This paper constructs a Fintech measurement by combining the financial information service sector of Chinese Fintech enterprise databases and various original data reports on listed companies provided by the CSMAR database. The databases provide good references and a basis for future research on Fintech. Third, as an emerging format in the financial industry, Fintech involves various subdivisions. At present, Fintech researchers mainly focus on P2P loans, equity-based crowdfunding, and mobile payment. Related research in other fields is relatively rare. Our study on the influence of Fintech information services on the market supplements the literature on Fintech. Fourth, this paper’s findings show that emerging Fintech platforms will have substitution effects on the analyst industry. The new competition will require analysts to improve their professional quality, thereby improving market efficiency. The paper puts forward the following policy recommendations. First, regulatory authorities should pay more attention to building a better market environment that helps analysts maintain intellectual independence and uphold the information intermediary role in the capital market. Second, the diversified business forms of Fintech should receive attention from regulatory authorities. They should carefully consider Fintech’s potential impact on the securities industry. Third, Fintech platforms will have an important influence on the investment analysis information that users view once they gain a large number of users. Therefore, Fintech platforms should provide investors with information on risk warnings to ensure the healthy and steady development of the capital market.

【Keywords】 Fintech; financial analysts; financial information services;

【DOI】

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ISSN:0577-9154

CN: 11-1081/F

Vol 55, No. 09, Pages 74-89

September 2020

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