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国际粮食价格波动影响因素分析

王学真1 公茂刚1 吴石磊1

(1.山东理工大学商学院)

【摘要】本文将供给和需求结合起来,并且考虑了恐慌性购买和煽动远景悲观预期的热钱大举进入国际粮食市场的影响,系统地考察了各国粮食价格波动的影响因素,分析了国际粮食价格波动的根源。研究结果表明:各国粮食价格波动的影响因素主要包括前期粮食价格波动、粮食供给波动、粮食需求波动和热钱波动。其中,粮食市场基本面因素的波动,即粮食供给波动和粮食需求波动是主要原因,且相对来说,粮食供给波动的影响更大。

【关键词】 国际粮食价格;波动;粮食供给;粮食需求;热钱;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社会科学基金重点项目“国际粮价波动及其对中国粮食安全影响研究”(项目编号:12AJY007); 国家社会科学基金青年项目“国际粮食价格形成机理及我国争取国际粮食价格定价权的策略研究”(项目编号:13CJY103)的资助;

Analysis of the influencing factors for international grain price fluctuations

WANG Xuezhen1 GONG Maogang1 WU Shilei1

(1.Business School, Shangdong University of Technology)

【Abstract】This paper combined supply and demand and considered influences of panic buying and the large-scale influx of hot money into the international grain market inciting a pessimistic perspective, observed the influencing factors for grain price fluctuations in various countries systematically, and analyzed the root of international grain price fluctuations. The research results showed that the influencing factors for grain price fluctuations in various countries mainly included grain price fluctuations at the early stage, fluctuations in grain supply, fluctuations in grain demand and fluctuations in hot money. Among these influencing factors, the fluctuations in the fundamental factors of the grain market, namely, fluctuations in grain supply and fluctuations in grain demand are the major reasons, and relatively speaking, the influence of fluctuations in grain supply was great.

【Keywords】 international grain prices; fluctuations; grain supply; grain demand; hot money;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Supported by Major Project of National Social Sciences Foundation of China (12AJY007); Young Scientists Fund of National Social Sciences Foundation of China (13CJY103);

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① Database of FAO: http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E [^Back]

    [2]. ① The website of International Statistical Yearbook: http://www.stats.gov.cn/ztjc/ztsj/gjsj/ [^Back]

    [3]. ① The website of UNCTAD: http://unctad.org/en/Pages/Home.aspx [^Back]

    [4]. ② The website of World Bank Database: http://data.worldbank.org.cn [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1002-8870

CN: 11-1262/F

Vol , No. 11, Pages 77-84

November 2015

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Composition of the influencing factors for international grain price fluctuations
  • 3 Test of the influencing factors for international grain price fluctuations
  • 4 Conclusions
  • Footnote

    References