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新农保非携带性对农村劳动力流动的锁定效应——兼论对新农合锁定效应的替代

于新亮1 申宇鹏1 李红波1

(1.山东财经大学保险学院)

【摘要】本文理论分析了新农保对农村劳动力流动的锁定效应,并利用2016年“中国劳动力动态调查”(CLDS)数据进行实证检验,同时对比分析新农合和新农保对农村劳动力流动锁定效应的关系。本文发现,新农保使得农村劳动力流动概率降低了56.82%,使得农村劳动力跨乡镇流动的概率降低了58.04%。新农保对青年和盛年劳动力的锁定效应强于老年劳动力。参加新农保的本地农民工流动到外地成为外出农民工的概率降低了34.03%。此外,对未参加新农保的农村劳动力而言,新农合对其流动性依然产生一定的锁定效应,但参加新农保后,新农合的锁定效应几乎被新农保完全替代。本文研究表明,在当前加快新型城镇化建设的趋势下,调整以新农保为代表的农村养老保险的非携带性显得尤为重要。

【关键词】 新农保;非携带性;农村劳动力流动;锁定效应;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“灾难性卫生支出风险识别、致贫路径与精准保障研究”(项目编号:71804090); 国家社会科学基金青年项目“农村失能老人家庭照料的社会支持研究(项目编号:19CSH073)”; 泰山学者工程专项经费“保险风险优化控制策略研究”(项目编号:tsqn20161041);

The lock-in effect of non-portability of new rural social endowment insurance’s on rural labor mobility: an alternative for the lock-in effect of New Rural Cooperative Medical System

YU Xinliang1 SHEN Yupeng1 LI Hongbo1

(1.School of Insurance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics)

【Abstract】This study theoretically analyzed the lock-in effect of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance (NRSEI) on the rural labor migration. Data of China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) in 2016 were used for conducting empirical tests. A comparative analysis was also carried out on the relationship between the New Rural Cooperative Medical Insurance (NRCMI) and NRSEI in terms of their lock-in effects on the rural labor migration. It was found that NRSEI reduced the migration probability of rural labor by 56.82%, and reduced the inter-town migration probability of rural labor by 58.04%. The lock-in effect of NRSEI on youth and young adults was stronger than on elderly adults. The probability that rural workers migrating out of their hometowns and becoming migrant workers was reduced by 34.03% after they joined the NRSEI scheme. In addition, for rural workers without NRSEI, NRCMI still had a certain lock-in effect on their migration. However, after rural workers joined the NRSEI scheme, the lock-in effect of NRCMI was almost completely replaced by that of NRSEI. This study showed that with the current trend characterized by accelerated new development for urbanization, it was particularly important to change the non-portability of rural endowment insurances represented by NRSEI.

【Keywords】 New Rural Social Endowment Insurance; non-portability; rural labor mobility; lock-in effect;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Young Scientists Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (71804090); Youth Project of the National Social Science Fund of China (19CSH073).; Special Fund for Taishan Scholar Project (tsqn20161041);

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① Data source: the website of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the People’s Republic of China, http://www.mohrss.gov.cn/gkml/zhgl/jytabl/tadf/201812/t20181205_306338.html [^Back]

    [2]. ① Data source: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201804/t20180427_1596389.html [^Back]

    [3]. ② Data source: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201804/t20180427_1596389.html [^Back]

    [4]. ① In December 2005, as stipulated in Decisions on Improving Basic Endowment Insurance System for Firms’ Employees published by the State Council, from January 1st, 2006, to distinguish between social pooling funds and individual account funds, the amount to be paid into a personal account for basic endowment insurance was changed from 8% to 11% of a person’s salary. [^Back]

    [5]. ② Data source: http://law.51labour.com/lawshow-96958-1.html [^Back]

    [6]. ③ Data source: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2009-09/04/content_7280.htm [^Back]

    [7]. ① The National Bureau of Statistics of China defines those migrant workers who work in the places where their households are registered as local migrant workers, and those who work outside of their hometowns as non-local migrant workers. [^Back]

    [8]. ① As stipulated in State Council’s Instructions on Trial of New Rural Social Security Insurance, during the trial, NRSEI should be managed at the county level temporarily, as the trial expands its scale and coverage, NRSEI should be managed at a higher level, and may be directly managed at the provincial level in the places where it is applicable. Following these instructions, in the places where the trial of NRSEI is carried out, management at the county level is implemented. [^Back]

    [9]. ① Data source: Department of Population and Employment Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics of China & the Planning and Finance Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the People’s Republic of China (eds.). China Labor Statistical Yearbook2017 (中国劳动统计年鉴(2017)). Beijing: China Statistics Press, (2017). [^Back]

    [10]. ② For more details, please refer to: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2009-0 9/04/content_7280.htm [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1006-4583

CN: 11-3586/F

Vol , No. 06, Pages 109-126

November 2019

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Literature review
  • 3 Theoretical model
  • 4 Setting of quantitative model and data descriptions
  • 5 Estimated results
  • 6 Comparative analysis of lock-in effect of NRSEI and NRCMI
  • 7 Conclusions and implications
  • Footnote

    References