Analysis of factors affecting the non-agricultural transfer of rural labor from the perspective of family life cycle: based on survey data of Hubei Province
【Abstract】This article constructed a classification standard for family life cycle in line with China’s rural conditions, dividing the cycle into six stages: the starting period, dependency period, burden period, stable period, support period and empty-nest period. Based on the analysis framework for sustainable livelihood, it used field survey data of rural areas in Hubei Province in 2016 and analyzed the determinants of rural household labor transfer to non-agricultural sectors at different life cycle stages. The results show that the family life cycle has a significant impact on the transfer of rural labor to non-agricultural sectors, and the probabilities of such transfer in the families at all other stages are higher than that in the families at the starting period. The determinants of rural labor transfer to non-agricultural sectors at different life cycle stages are obviously different. Per capita area of land operation has a negative effect on labor transfer in the families at the starting period; households in the dependency, burden and stable periods are found to have higher probabilities of rural labor transfer to non-agricultural sectors. Besides, the age of householder and quantity of productive fixed assets have negative effect on labor transfer in families at the dependency period. For labor transfer in families in the burden period, the age of householder has a positive effect, whereas per capita area of land operation and the number of households in close contact have a negative effect. Moreover, the education level of labor and quantity of productive fixed assets have negative effect on families in the stable period. Finally, both the coefficient of population burden and quantity of productive fixed assets have negative effect on labor transfer in families at the support period. The study suggests that accurate incentive policies should be formulated for transfer of rural labor to non-agricultural sectors based on characteristics at the different stages of rural family life cycle.
【Keywords】 family life cycle; rural labor; non-agricultural transfer;
. ① The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council. National Plan for New Urbanization (2014–2020) (国家新型城镇化规划(2014－2020年)). Beijing: People’s Publishing House (2014). [^Back]
. ① Compiled according to the Statistical Communiqué on the 2016 National Economic and Social Development (from the websites of statistics bureaus of various provincial areas) of all provincial areas. [^Back]
. ① Source: http://www.hubei.gov.cn [^Back]
. ② Source: http://www.stats-hb.gov.cn [^Back]
. ③ Source: http://www.stats-hb.gov.cn [^Back]
. ① Considering that there may be collinearity between the coefficient of population burden and the family life cycle stages, this paper carries out multicollinearity testing in the later empirical analysis. The results show that the values of variance inflation factor are mostly below 1.5, with a maximum of 5.56, and multicollinearity is relatively weak. [^Back]
. ① Since there is no non-agricultural transfer of labor in families in the empty-nest period, no analysis is made on the factors influencing the non-agricultural transfer of labor in families in the period. [^Back]
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