Influences of outflow of rural labor force on grain production: evidence from China

CHENG Mingwang HUANG Tiantian LIU Yajuan

(1.The School of Economic Management, Tongji University)
(2.Sustainable Development and New-Type Urbanization Think Tank, Tongji University)
【Knowledge Link】rural labor force

【Abstract】Grain security is a core problem of issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers in China, and the outflow of rural labor force may have a significant influence on grain security. This paper used the panel data from 2001 to 2013, based on the extended C-D production function to make an empirical analysis of the outflow of rural labor force’s influences on grain production and its regional differences. The results showed that the outflow of rural labor force had a remarkable negative influence on grain production in the main sales areas of grain. However, it had no significant influences on grain production in major grain-producing areas and areas with the balance between production and sales. Fully considering the difference of resources endowments and regional characteristics in different areas, making different policies of labor mobility and grain security will be beneficial to ensure the safety of China’s food supply.

【Keywords】 the outflow of rural labor force; grain production; major grain-producing areas; sales areas of grain; areas with the balance between production and sales;


【Funds】 Supported by the Plan of Positions for Distinguished Professors (Oriental Scholars) of Shanghai Universities (TP2015023) Pujiang Talent Program (15PJC087) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71173156) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71373179) the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (0800219322) Sustainable Development and New-type Urbanization Think Tank, Tongji University (1200219318)

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(Translated by SHI Qingling)


    [1]. ① According to the definition of the United Nations’ World Food Program (WFP), grain security in a broad sense includes two aspects as the follows. The first is security of the capacity to supply grain; the second is security of the ability to get grain. Grain security in a narrow sense only refers to the former (Wang, 2011). This paper takes the narrow sense and analyzes security of grain supply. [^Back]

    [2]. ① The amount of chemical fertilizer used is obtained by calculating the amount of effective components according to its method. [^Back]

    [3]. ② The National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China (eds.). China Statistical Yearbook (2014) (中国统计年鉴, 2014). Beijing: China Statistics Press, (2014). [^Back]

    [4]. ③ The National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China (eds.). China Rural Statistical Yearbook (2014) (中国农村统计年鉴). Beijing: China Statistics Press, (2014). [^Back]

    [5]. ④ The National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China (eds.). China Compendium of Statistics 1949–2008 (新中国六十年统计资料汇编). Beijing: China Statistics Press, (2010). [^Back]

    [6]. ① Source: Wang, M. Grain News (粮油市场报), (2014–1–22). [^Back]

    [7]. ② In this econometric equation, the method of inverse proxy variables is used, taking the laborer engaged in grain production directly as the inverse proxy variable of the outflow of rural labor force. [^Back]


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This Article


CN: 11-3586/F

Vol , No. 06, Pages 15-21+46+94

November 2015


Article Outline



  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Construction of models and data sources
  • 3 Results of regression and analysis
  • 4 Conclusions and review
  • Footnote