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人口城市化、结构红利与时空效应研究——以劳动力市场效率为视角

唐代盛1 盛伟2

(1.北京交通大学经济管理学院)
(2.西南民族大学经济学院)

【摘要】文章采用2012~2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据,从时间和空间二元视角考察了人口城市化与产业结构升级对劳动力市场效率的促进作用及变动规律。研究发现,在时间维度上,城市化对提升劳动力市场效率随时间的推移显现结构红利效应且呈增强态势,城市化加强了产业结构变迁的生产率增长效应,二者形成了促进劳动力市场效率的“协同效应”;在空间维度上,城市化有显著的扩散效应,能带动邻近地区劳动力市场效率提升,不过随时间的推移逐渐演化为空间竞争效应。模拟市场边界范围扩大,劳动力市场效率呈“倒U形”非线性空间变动规律,改变了严格的“距离衰减”假设。就业红利的时间—空间效应表明,城市化、产业升级虽然在区域范围内难以产生显著的长期结构红利,但通过空间溢出效应带来了劳动者就业水平的持续提升。消除地区间空间壁垒,规避经济过度聚集,拓展市场边界,将有效提升城市化及产业结构升级过程中的结构红利,从而提升中国劳动力市场效率。

【关键词】 城市化;结构红利;空间溢出效应;劳动力市场效率;

【DOI】

Population urbanization, structural dividend and space-time effect: a perspective of labor market efficiency

TANG Daisheng1 SHENG Wei2

(1.School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University)
(2.School of Economics, Southwest Minzu University)

【Abstract】From the perspectives of time and space, the paper investigates the growth effect and variation of population urbanization and industrial upgrading on labor market efficiency by using the data of China Labor-Force Dynamic Survey (CLDS) from 2012 to 2016. The results show that, urbanization has a lag effect on improving labor market efficiency, and the structural dividend effect is gradually highlighted and strengthened over time. Urbanization strengthens the productivity growth effect of industrial structure change, and forms a synergistic effect to promote labor market efficiency. Spatially, urbanization has a significant diffusion effect, which can improve labor market efficiency in adjacent regions. However, it will gradually form a spatial competition effect over time. As the simulation boundary expands, labor market efficiency has presented the nonlinear pattern as an inverted U, which breaks the strict hypothesis of distance attenuation. In addition, space-time effect of employment dividend shows that, although urbanization and industrial structure upgrading cannot produce significant long-term employment dividend in the region, they can bring continuous improvement of employment in adjacent regions through spatial spillover effect. In general, by actively weakening the spatial barriers between regions, avoiding the excessive economic aggregation, and expanding market boundary to promote market integration, China will expand structural dividends of urbanization and industrial structure upgrading, and finally improve the labor market efficiency.

【Keywords】 urbanization; structural dividend; spatial spillover effect; labor market efficiency;

【DOI】

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① Although the micro data of China Labor-Force Dynamic Survey only cover 29 provincial regions, the interaction among markets in China should be considered when calculating the spatial term of urbanization. Therefore, 30 provincial regions other than Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet are taken as the research scope in the macro samples. [^Back]

    [2]. ① The centroid of any provincial region starts to search outwards from 0. When it is satisfied that each provincial region has at least one neighbor, and namely, the urbanization spatial term of each provincial region is not 0, it is the minimum distance (radius) range, which is 1265 km in this paper. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1000-7881

CN:11-1043/C

Vol , No. 05, Pages 29-42+126-127

October 2019

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Research status
  • 3 Research hypothesis
  • 4 Data source, model selection and variable construction
  • 5 Empirical analysis
  • 6 Robust discussion and extended analysis
  • 7 Research conclusions and policy implications
  • Footnote

    References