Population urbanization, structural dividend and space-time effect: a perspective of labor market efficiency

TANG Daisheng1 SHENG Wei2

(1.School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University)
(2.School of Economics, Southwest Minzu University)

【Abstract】From the perspectives of time and space, the paper investigates the growth effect and variation of population urbanization and industrial upgrading on labor market efficiency by using the data of China Labor-Force Dynamic Survey (CLDS) from 2012 to 2016. The results show that, urbanization has a lag effect on improving labor market efficiency, and the structural dividend effect is gradually highlighted and strengthened over time. Urbanization strengthens the productivity growth effect of industrial structure change, and forms a synergistic effect to promote labor market efficiency. Spatially, urbanization has a significant diffusion effect, which can improve labor market efficiency in adjacent regions. However, it will gradually form a spatial competition effect over time. As the simulation boundary expands, labor market efficiency has presented the nonlinear pattern as an inverted U, which breaks the strict hypothesis of distance attenuation. In addition, space-time effect of employment dividend shows that, although urbanization and industrial structure upgrading cannot produce significant long-term employment dividend in the region, they can bring continuous improvement of employment in adjacent regions through spatial spillover effect. In general, by actively weakening the spatial barriers between regions, avoiding the excessive economic aggregation, and expanding market boundary to promote market integration, China will expand structural dividends of urbanization and industrial structure upgrading, and finally improve the labor market efficiency.

【Keywords】 urbanization; structural dividend; spatial spillover effect; labor market efficiency;

【DOI】

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(Translated by HAN Xueting)

    Footnote

    [1]. ① Although the micro data of China Labor-Force Dynamic Survey only cover 29 provincial regions, the interaction among markets in China should be considered when calculating the spatial term of urbanization. Therefore, 30 provincial regions other than Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet are taken as the research scope in the macro samples. [^Back]

    [2]. ① The centroid of any provincial region starts to search outwards from 0. When it is satisfied that each provincial region has at least one neighbor, and namely, the urbanization spatial term of each provincial region is not 0, it is the minimum distance (radius) range, which is 1265 km in this paper. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1000-7881

CN: 11-1043/C

Vol , No. 05, Pages 29-42+126-127

October 2019

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Research status
  • 3 Research hypothesis
  • 4 Data source, model selection and variable construction
  • 5 Empirical analysis
  • 6 Robust discussion and extended analysis
  • 7 Research conclusions and policy implications
  • Footnote

    References