Multi-state model analysis on self-care healthy life expectancy of the elderly in China
(2.Institute of Population Research, Peking University)
【Abstract】Based on data of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) in 2008, 2011 and 2014, this paper uses interpolated Markov chain to calculate the risk transfer probability by gender and age, healthy life expectancy, and average life expectancy among different health states of the elderly who were 65–99 years old, and then predicts the disability rate of the elderly according to the correlation of the risk transfer probabilities. The results show that the probability of healthy-disabled transition increases gradually along with age, and the probability of disabled-healthy recovery decreases gradually. At the oldest ages, the probability of health-disability transition increases rapidly, and the probability of recovery is very low. The average life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of the female elderly are longer, but the proportion of healthy life expectancy is lower than that of the male elderly. The disability rate of the elderly in China increased from 2016 to 2030, supporting the morbidity expansion hypothesis and reaching a stable state in 2026 or so. These findings suggest that health services for the elderly should focus on prevention, reduce the risk of disability and prolong the healthy life expectancy in policy design, care providing and facility arrangement. At the same time, we should pay attention to the health needs of the female elderly and improve their quality of life.
【Keywords】 the elderly; healthy life expectancy; disability;
(Translated by DUAN yinhong)
. ① http://www.Gov.cn/zhengce/2016-10/25/content_5124174.htm. [^Back]
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