Seventy years of China: the changes of population age structure and the trend of population aging

WANG Guangzhou1

(1.Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences )

【Abstract】Based on the population censuses and 1% sampling survey data, this paper uses the indirect estimation methods to reconstruct the changes of population age structure for 70 years of China. The main conclusions and insights are as follow. (1) During the past 70 years, Chinese population has experienced both dramatic increase and decrease. The changes in the first 35 years are mainly determined by social-economic situation, while those in the second 35 years are influenced jointly by strict family planning policy and social-economic conditions. (2) Compared with the population changes from 1959 to 1961, the nature of baby boom in response to the universal two-child policy in 2015 is completely different. Yet, they both result in a baby boom for about two years.(3) The recent 35 years witnessed low fertility and decreasing number of new births, which strengthens the trend of population age structure. The proportion of elderly population will eventually exceed 30%, and will remain at high levels in the future.

【Keywords】 age structure; aging; indirect estimation; baby boom; family planning policy;

【DOI】

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(Translated by LI Lisha)

    Footnote

    [1]. ① National Bureau of Statistics. Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2018 National Economic and Social Development (中华人民共和国2018年国民经济和社会发展统计公报), (2019-2-28). [^Back]

    [2]. ① Male infant mortality rate was 66.57‰ and female infant mortality rate was 59.84‰ from 1965 to 1969 (Gao, 1997). [^Back]

    [3]. ① Working-age population was aged 15 to 59, and elderly population was aged 60 or above. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1000-7881

CN: 11-1043/C

Vol , No. 03, Pages 2-15+126

June 2019

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Data sources and research methods
  • 3 Age structure changes of Chinese population
  • 4 The trends of population aging in China
  • 5 Implications and conclusions
  • Footnote

    References