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【摘要】文章基于2012和2014年中国家庭动态跟踪调查 (CFPS) 的个体面板数据, 对老年人在消费、健康、生活条件 (住房) 、生活满意程度及未来信心程度5个维度的多维贫困和不平等进行估计, 并使用消除内生性的模糊断点回归2SLS方法, 检验新型农村社会养老保险和城镇居民社会养老保险对老年人福利的影响。结果显示, 2014年的城乡多维贫困和不平等指标均比2012年有所下降。2012年对城乡多维贫困最大的贡献因素是未来信心程度, 而2014年是住房状况;新型农村社会养老保险和城镇居民社会养老保险不仅对老年人口多维贫困和不平等没有明显的降低作用, 而且对多维贫困和不平等中的单一维度的剥夺没有任何影响。为此, 文章建议未来这两种养老保险制度改革重点应为继续扩大覆盖面, 提高城乡居民养老金水平, 解除捆绑式的参保方式。

【关键词】 老年人口;多维贫困;不平等;养老保险;


【基金资助】 国家自然科学基金项目“面向家庭和个人的公共转移支付减贫效应研究” (编号:71673167) 的阶段性成果;

Pensions and multidimensional elderly poverty and inequality: a comparative perspective on urban and rural non-compulsory pension insurance


(1.School of Economics, Shandong University)

【Abstract】This paper uses the panel data of 2012 and 2014 CFPS to build elderly’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) and Correlation Sensitive Poverty Index (CSPI) , which includes consumption, health, living conditions (housing) , life satisfaction and future confidence in China. It then evaluates the effect of two non-compulsory pensions insurances, new rural resident pension insurance system and urban resident pension insurance system, on multidimensional poverty and inequality using the 2SLS fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design techniques to account for the issue of endogeneity. The results show that urban and rural elderly multidimensional poverty and inequality of 2014 were lower than those of 2012.The future confidence is the largest contribution to urban and rural multidimensional poverty in 2012, while in 2014 is the housing condition. New rural resident pension insurance system and urban resident pension insurance system have no significant effect on not only the decrease of multidimensional poverty and multidimensional inequality of the elderly but also each of dimension in multidimensional poverty and multidimensional inequality. Suggestions derived from these findings are to continue to expand the coverage of two kinds of old-age insurance, to improve the level of pensions for urban and rural residents, and to remove bundled attendance.

【Keywords】 the elderly population; multidimensional poverty; inequality; pension insurance;


【Funds】 The phased achievement of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71673167).;

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This Article


CN: 11-1043/C

Vol , No. 05, Pages 62-73+127

October 2017


Article Outline


  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Data sources, index selection and multidimensional poverty and inequality measurement
  • 3 Breakpoint regression method
  • 4 Empirical analysis
  • 5 Conclusions and policy suggestions
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