Quantitative analysis on the effect of Beijing’s floating population control policy

SHENG Yinan1 TONG Yufen1

(1.Research Institute of Demography & Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business)

【Abstract】Based on examining Beijing’s floating population control policies in recent decades, this article analyzed the effect of these policies in different periods of lag by using multivariate autoregressive moving average model. The results showed that the pressure of the rapid growth of urban population is reduced by the floating population control policies to a certain extent. However, the effect of such policies is limited because of the urbanization and industrialization, and because those economically reasonable choices made by the floating population. Besides, this study suggested that establishing a policy package system will help to effectively control the growth of floating population, and paying attention to the time-lag of the policy will also help to achieve the optimal result.

【Keywords】 megacity; population control policy; policy effect;


【Funds】 Innovation Team Building and Teachers’ Career Development Program of Universities in Beijing (IDHT20130523)

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(Translated by YU shangxi)


    [1]. ① Some articles in Beijing’s population control policies of early times were abolished. The quantitative analysis in this article calculates the policy’s implementation effect only once, instead of accumulatively. Since those abolished articles have already exerted effect on population control in its implementation period, the variable assignment of these articles is similar to that of other policies without any adjustment. [^Back]


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This Article


CN: 11-1043/C

Vol , No. 06, Pages 12-22+126

December 2015


Article Outline


  • 1 Evolvement of Beijing’s floating population control policies
  • 2 Policy evaluation method and model selection
  • 3 Structure and operation of policy evaluation model
  • 4 Conclusions and reflections
  • Footnote