基于泊松分布的出租车合乘概率及等待时间建模

肖强1,2 何瑞春1 俞建宁1 张薇1 马昌喜1

(1.兰州交通大学交通运输学院, 甘肃兰州 730070)
(2.兰州交通大学经济管理学院, 甘肃兰州 730070)

【摘要】为了反映城市出租车合乘的成功率,准确描述合乘的效果,利用出租车合乘概率和等待时间对合乘问题进行分析。依据泊松分布原理,讨论出租车合乘中出租车载客车辆的泊松分布,建立基于泊松分布的出租车合乘概率模型,并通过概率模型结合n重伯努利试验原理,构建出租车合乘等待时间模型,探讨出租车数量、空载率、平均行驶速率和行驶目的地分布对合乘概率和合乘等待时间的影响。以南京市雨花南路路段出租车行驶的GPS数据为研究对象,对模型进行验证。研究结果表明:出租车载客车辆数据通过显著水平为0.05的K-S检验,其分布服从泊松分布;出行的高峰时段,路段内出租车数量增大,空载率降低,对于行驶目的地分布相对集中的区域,出租车合乘的概率为60%~80%,合乘的等待时间为5~15min;出行的低峰时段,路段内出租车的数量减少,空载率增加,对于行驶目的地分布相对集中的区域,出租车合乘的概率为20%~60%,合乘等待时间在15min以上;在该路段内的出租车平均行驶速度相对稳定,对出租车合乘概率和等待时间影响较小;出租车合乘适宜在日常出行的高峰时段采用,可通过1次载客多次合乘的方式提高合乘效率;该模型具有一定的有效性和实用性,能够为交通管理部门和合乘者选择合乘提供参考。

【关键词】 交通工程; 合乘概率; 等待时间; 泊松分布; 城市出租车;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家自然科学基金项目(61364026,51408288)

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This Article

ISSN:1001-7372

CN: 61-1313/U

Vol 31, No. 05, Pages 151-159

May 2018

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Article Outline

摘要

  • 0 引言
  • 1 出租车合乘概率及等待时间模型
  • 2 实证分析
  • 3 结语
  • 参考文献