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日本房地产泡沫形成及“崩溃”的实像剖析

刘轩1

(1.南开大学日本研究院, 天津 300071)

【摘要】国内学者对日本的房地产泡沫及其崩溃问题存在一定认识误区。实际上, 经济高速增长和快速城市化往往伴随着房地产价格高涨甚至房地产泡沫。房地产泡沫未必导致泡沫经济, 也不必然发生崩溃, 而是可能通过有效释放或挤出加以消融。日本1980年代中期出现的房地产泡沫, 源于没有刚性需求的房地产炒作, 其最终“崩溃”并不是泡沫爆裂后房地产价格的断崖式下跌, 而是在日本政府直接干预下的逐渐挤出, 并经历了长达20多年的缓慢下降。

【关键词】 房地产泡沫;泡沫崩溃;泡沫经济;公共住宅;住宅供给;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社会科学基金重大项目“新编日本史” (13&ZD106) ;

Truth about the formation and crash of Japan’s real estate bubble

LIU Xuan1

(1.Institute of Japan Studies, Nankai University, Tianjin, China 300071)

【Abstract】Many Chinese scholars often have misunderstandings about the fact that how Japan’s real estate bubble formed and crashed. Actually, while the economy and urbanization developing rapidly, real estate market prices would be greatly inflated and even a price bubble would form. However, a real estate bubble may not crash or cause the bubble economy; they may be released or squeezed out by effective means. Japan’s real estate bubble that began in the middle of 1980s was caused by the housing market speculation without rigid demand. Then the bubble crashed, but the prices of real estate did not plummet. Japanese government has been playing an important role in the course. As a result, Japan’s real estate bubble has been squeezed out gradually and housing prices have been declined gently over the last two decades.

【Keywords】 real estate bubble; bubble crash; bubble economy; public housing; housing supply;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Major project of The National Social Science Fund of China (13&ZD106);

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① Assume that the average annual land price growth is 20%, then if calculated according to P = (1 + 20%)n, the land price after 10 years will be 6.19 times that in the base year. [^Back]

    References

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This Article

ISSN:1000-355X

CN: 22-1065/F

Vol , No. 01, Pages 1-9

January 2018

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Misunderstandings about the formation and crash of Japan’s real estate bubble
  • 2 Post-war relations among real estate prices, real estate bubbles and Japanese economy
  • 3 Japan’s real estate market development and reality of bubble “crash”
  • 4 Policy implications from Japan’s real estate market development
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    References