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中日对“一带一路”沿线国家贸易隐含碳的测算及影响因素分析

李清如1

(1.中国社会科学院日本研究所, 北京 100007)

【摘要】基于GTAP 9数据库,构建多区域投入产出模型,测算中国和日本对“一带一路”沿线国家(1)商品和服务贸易中的隐含碳排放。结果表明,中日两国在贸易隐含碳的规模、平衡状态、区域结构和行业流向等方面存在很大差异。中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口隐含碳高于进口,属于碳排放的“国内承担、国外消费”模式;而日本的进口隐含碳高于出口,属于“国内消费、国外承担”模式。“一带一路”沿线的大多数国家,是中国国内碳排放的实际消费国和日本国内消费的碳排放实际承担国。贸易体量、隐含碳密集度和贸易结构是造成中国和日本对“一带一路”沿线国家贸易隐含碳差异的主要影响因素。

【关键词】 “一带一路”倡议;贸易隐含碳;MRIO模型;日本;中国;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社会科学基金青年项目“第二次世界大战结束以来的日本领土问题研究”(16CSS018);

Embodied carbon in trade of China and Japan with countries along the Belt and Road and its influencing factors

LI Qingru1

(1.Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China 100007)

【Abstract】Based on the GTAP 9 database and multiregional input-output models, this paper calculates the embodied carbon in trade of China and Japan with countries along the Belt and Road. Results shows that there are great differences between China and Japan in terms of scale, balance, regional structure and flows in industries of embodied carbon in trade. China’s embodied carbon in exports is higher than that in imports, in a model of embodied carbon emissions consumed domestically and consumed overseas. On the contrary, Japan’s embodied carbon in imports is higher than that in exports, in a model of embodied carbon emissions consumed domestically and produced overseas. Most countries along the Belt and Road are the consumers of carbon emissions which China produces in domestically, and the producers of carbon emissions which Japan consumes domestically. The trade scale, embodied carbon intensity and trade structure are the main factors influencing the embodied carbon in trade of China and Japan with countries along the Belt and Road.

【Keywords】 Belt and Road Initiative; embodied carbon in trade; MRIO model; Japan; China;

【DOI】

【Funds】 The National Social Science Fund of China (16CSS018);

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① There are no specific space limitations on the definition of countries along the Belt and Road. This paper focuses on more than 60 countries in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Northeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and West Asia and North Africa, as shown in Table 1 in Part 2. [^Back]

    [2]. ① There are different versions of GTAP based on the release year and data content. GTAP6 was released in 2005, covering data of 57 industries in 87 countries and regions in 2001. GTAP7 was released in 2008, covering data of 57 industries in 113 countries and regions in 2004. GTAP8 was released in 2012, covering data of 57 industries in 129 countries and regions in 2004 and 2007. The latest version GTAP9 was released in 2015, and the data in this version cover 140 countries and regions with the base years 2004, 2007 and 2011. [^Back]

    [3]. ① Among them, energy mainly includes mining and extraction of coal, oil and natural gas; other resources mainly include mining and extraction of metal ores, uranium ores and other resources; and coal and petroleum products mainly include coal products, petroleum products and nuclear fuel processing. [^Back]

    [4]. ① Goods here refer to goods and service trade, which is the same below. [^Back]

    [5]. ② In view of limited space, only the data at the regional level are shown in Table 3. [^Back]

    [6]. ① Trade data come from the GTAP9 database, which is the same as below. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1000-355X

CN: 22-1065/F

Vol 36, No. 04, Pages 69-84

July 2017

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Review of related literature on embodied carbon in trade
  • 2 Research methods and data sources
  • 3 Calculation and structure analysis of embodied carbon in trade of China and Japan with countries along the Belt and Road
  • 4 Influencing factors of embodied carbon in trade of China and Japan with countries along the Belt and Road
  • 5 Conclusion
  • Footnote

    References