Uncertainty in college admissions and educational attainment differences: evidence from a Chinese province
(2.Graduate School of Education, Peking University)
【Abstract】In studies of educational attainment, how do we explain the differences among gender, ethnic groups and residence, when academic performance is controlled? This article shows that above the threshold of general universities, differences are driven by uncertainty in admissions. Below the threshold, differences are driven by preferences for different levels of education. Using a complete data set of National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) from one Chinese province, this article illustrates the distribution of uncertainty, different reactions to uncertainty by social groups, and effects on educational attainment. It also discusses the effect of policies on uncertainty, such as the policy of educational expansion.
【Keywords】 uncertainty; match; National College Entrance Examination (NCEE); differences in educational attainment;
. ① https://www.nxjyks.cn/ [^Back]
Chen, S., Ding, Y., Liu, X. et al. China Economics of Education Review (教育经济评论), (2) (2018).
Chen, W. & Wuriniqiqige. Chinese Journal of Sociology (社会), (2) (2016).
He, Y. Education Science (教育科学), (3) (2008).
Kang, L. & Ha, W. Peking University Education Review (北京大学教育评论), (1) (2016).
Liu, J. Chinese Journal of Sociology (社会), (3) (2006).
Liu, D. & Li, X. Sociological Studies (社会学研究), (6) (2015).
Li, C. & Wu, W. Social Sciences of Beijing (北京社会科学), (9) (2017).
Li, C. Sociological Studies (社会学研究), (3) (2010).
Li, C. Sociological Studies (社会学研究), (2) (2014).
Li, D. Sociological Studies (社会学研究), (3) (2017).
[US] Knight, F. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. An, J. (trans.) Beijing: The Commercial Press, (2010).
Nie, H. South China Journal of Economics (南方经济), (6) (2006).
Nie, H. China Economic Quarterly (经济学), (3) (2007).
Shao, C. Youth Studies (青年研究), (2) (2015).
Wu, X. Chinese Journal of Sociology (社会), (3) (2016).
Wu, Y. Chinese Journal of Sociology (社会), (4) (2012).
Wu, Y. Sociological Studies (社会学研究), (4) (2013a).
Wu, Y. Social Sciences in China (中国社会科学), (3) (2013b).
Yang, P. & Liu, Y. Peking University Education Review (北京大学教育评论), (3) (2016).
Ye, H. & Wu, X. Sociological Studies (社会学研究), (5) (2011).
Zhang, C. & Xie, Y. Sociological Studies (社会学研究), (1) (2017).
Zhang, Z. & Chen, Q. Sociological Studies (社会学研究), (2) (2013).
Abdulkadiroglu, A., P. A. Pathak, A. E. Roth & T. Sonmez 2005, “The Boston Public School Match.” The American Economic Review 95(2).
Bastedo, M. N. & A. Flaster 2014, “Conceptual and Methodological Problems in Research on College Undermatch.” Educational Researcher 43(2).
Byrnes, James P., David C. Miller & William D. Schafer 1999, “Gender Differences in Risk Taking: A Meta-analysis.” Psychological Bulletin 125(3).
Chen, Yan & Onur Kesten 2017, “Chinese College Admissions and School Choice Reforms: A Theoretical Analysis.” Journal of Political Economy 125(1).
Cherng, Hua-Yu Sebastian, Emily C. Hannum & Chunping Lu 2013, “Sociological Perspectives on Ethnicity and Education in China: Views from Chinese and English Literature.” Asia-Pacific Education, Language Minorities and Migration (ELMM) Network Working Paper Series 4.
De Berker, Archy O., Robb B. Rutledge, Christoph Mathys, Louise Marshall, Gemma F. Cross, Raymond J. Dolan & Sven Bestmann 2016, “Computations of Uncertainty Mediate Acute Stress Responses in Humans.” Nature Communications 7(1).
Ergin, Haluk & Tayfun Sonmez 2006, “Games of School Choice under the Boston Mechanism.” Journal of Public Economics 1(2).
Feld, Scott L. 1991, “Why Your Friends Have More Friends Than You Do.” American Journal of Sociology 96(6).
Feld, Scott L. & Bernard Grofman 1977, “Variations in Class Size, the Class Size Paradox, and Consequences for Students.” Research in Higher Education 6.
Gale, David & Lloyd S. Shapley 1962, “College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage.” The American Mathematical Monthly 69.
Grupe, Daniel W. & Jack B. Nitschke 2013, “Uncertainty and Anticipation in Anxiety: An Integrated Neurobiological and Psychological Perspective.” Nature Reviews Neuroscience 14(7).
Haushofer, Johannes & Ernst Fehr 2014, “On the Psychology of Poverty.” Science 344(6186).
Hoxby, Caroline M. & Christopher Avery 2013, “The Missing ‘One-Offs’: The Hidden Supply of High-Achieving, Low Income Students.” National Bureau of Economic Research 44(1).
King, Gary & Langche Zeng 2001, “Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data.” Political Analysis 9(2).
Kish-Gephart, Jennifer J. & Joanna Tochman Campbell 2014, “You Don’t Forget Your Roots: The Influence of CEO Social Class Background on Strategic Risk Taking.” Academy of Management Journal 58(6).
Mather, Mara & Nichole R. Lighthall 2012, “Both Risk and Reward are Processed Differently in Decisions Made under Stress.” Current Directions in Psychological Science 21(2).
Peters, Achim, Bruce S. Mcewen & K. J. Friston 2017, “Uncertainty and Stress: Why it Causes Diseases and How It Is Mastered by the Brain.” Progress in Neurobiology 156.
Roderick, M., J. Nagaoka, V. Coca, E. Moeller, K. Roddie, J. Gilliam & D. Patton 2008, From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College. Chicago, IL: Consortium on Chicago School Research.
Smith, J., M. Pender & J. Howell 2013, “The Full Extent of Student College Academic Undermatch.” Economics of Education Review 32.