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老年人生活自理预期寿命的变动趋势——以上海市户籍老年人为例

李强1 董隽含2 李洁2

(1.华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心暨社会发展学院人口研究所)
(2.华东师范大学社会发展学院人口研究所)

【摘要】上海市户籍老年人的余寿在1998~2013年间不断延长,但是生活自理预期寿命则由1998~2008年的增长转变为2008~2013年的下降。生活自理预期寿命占余寿的比重在1998~2003年遵循“功能残障扩张模式”,2003~2008年则遵循“功能残障压缩模式”,2008~2013年又遵循“功能残障扩张模式”。1998~2008年生活自理预期寿命的上升主要是死亡率的下降造成的,其中1998~2003年生活自理率的下降作用被死亡率的下降作用抵消,2003~2008年则是死亡率下降和生活自理率上升共同促进其增长。2008~2013年生活自理预期寿命的下降主要是由生活自理率的下降导致的,其抵消了死亡率下降带来的增长。上海社会经济的发展、医疗技术的进步及医疗保障体制的实施等均影响老年人生活自理预期寿命的变动。上海2008年以来人均医疗保健费用支出的飞速增长可能是生活自理预期寿命转变的体现。

【关键词】 健康预期寿命;生活自理预期寿命;功能残障扩张假说;功能残障压缩假说;上海户籍老年人;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“上海市老年人的健康预期寿命的变动趋势、影响机制及未来变化的预测”(2019BSH002); 国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国老年人健康预期寿命的区域差异、影响因素与对策研究”(71503082); 国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国人口寿命不均等的变化趋势、影响因素及对策研究”(71473044);

Trend of disability-free life expectancy of the registered elderly in Shanghai from 1998 to 2013

LI Qiang1 DONG Junhan2 LI Jie2

(1.Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, and Population Research Institute of School of Social Development, East China Normal University)
(2.Population Research Institute of School of Social Development, East China Normal University)

【Abstract】The life expectancy of the registered elderly in Shanghai increased steadily from 1998 to 2013, but their disability-free life expectancy changed from an upward trend in 1998–2008 to a downward trend in 2008–2013. The proportion of disability-free life expectancy in life expectancy followed the model of expansion of morbidity from 1998 to 2003, the model of compression of morbidity from 2003 to 2008, and again the model of expansion of morbidity from 2008 to 2013. The increase in disability-free life expectancy from 1998 to 2008 was mainly due to the decline of mortality; the effect of the decline in disability-free rate from 2008 to 2013 was offset by that of the decline in mortality; and the increase in disability-free life expectancy was driven by both the decline in mortality and the increase in disability-free life expectancy from 2003 to 2008. The decline in disability-free life expectancy from 2008 to 2013 was mainly attributable to the decrease in the disability-free rate, which offset the increase brought about by the decline of mortality. The social and economic development, the advance of medical technology, and the implementation of medical security systems in Shanghai have all had impacts on the changes in the disability-free life expectancy of the elderly. The rapid increase in per capita health expenditure in Shanghai since 2008 may serve as a reflection of the transition of disability-free life expectancy for the elderly.

【Keywords】 healthy life expectancy; disability-free life expectancy; expansion of morbidity; compression of morbidity; the registered elderly in Shanghai;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project (2019BSH002); National Natural Science Foundation of China (71503082); National Natural Science Foundation of China (71473044);

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This Article

ISSN:1000-6087

CN: 11-1489/C

Vol 44, No. 01, Pages 39-53

January 2020

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Literature review
  • 3 Data and research methods
  • 4 Research findings
  • 5 Conclusions and discussions
  • References