老年人生活自理预期寿命的变动趋势——以上海市户籍老年人为例

李强1 董隽含2 李洁2

(1.华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心暨社会发展学院人口研究所)
(2.华东师范大学社会发展学院人口研究所)

【摘要】上海市户籍老年人的余寿在1998~2013年间不断延长,但是生活自理预期寿命则由1998~2008年的增长转变为2008~2013年的下降。生活自理预期寿命占余寿的比重在1998~2003年遵循“功能残障扩张模式”,2003~2008年则遵循“功能残障压缩模式”,2008~2013年又遵循“功能残障扩张模式”。1998~2008年生活自理预期寿命的上升主要是死亡率的下降造成的,其中1998~2003年生活自理率的下降作用被死亡率的下降作用抵消,2003~2008年则是死亡率下降和生活自理率上升共同促进其增长。2008~2013年生活自理预期寿命的下降主要是由生活自理率的下降导致的,其抵消了死亡率下降带来的增长。上海社会经济的发展、医疗技术的进步及医疗保障体制的实施等均影响老年人生活自理预期寿命的变动。上海2008年以来人均医疗保健费用支出的飞速增长可能是生活自理预期寿命转变的体现。

【关键词】 健康预期寿命; 生活自理预期寿命; 功能残障扩张假说; 功能残障压缩假说; 上海户籍老年人;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“上海市老年人的健康预期寿命的变动趋势、影响机制及未来变化的预测”(2019BSH002) 国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国老年人健康预期寿命的区域差异、影响因素与对策研究”(71503082) 国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国人口寿命不均等的变化趋势、影响因素及对策研究”(71473044)

Download this article

    References

    1 Du Peng and Li Qiang.2006.Disability-free Life Expectancy of Chinese Elderly and Its Change betweens 1994 and 2004.Population Research 5:9-16.

    2 Zeng Yi,Gu Danan,and Kenneth C.Land.2007.The Extension of the Method for Estimating the Health Life Expectancy and Its Application to the Chinese Oldest-Old.Chinese Journal of Population Science 6:2-13.

    3 Wang Mei.1993.Analysis of the Health Status of the Elderly’s Life Expectancy-the Average Expected Period of Illness in the Elderly.Population Research 5:26-31.

    4 Zhang Wenjuan and Du Peng.2009.Regional Disparity in Changes of Healthy Life Expectancy of Chinese Elderly:Expansion or Compression?Population Research 5:68-76.

    5 Tang Zhe,Xiang Manjun,Zachary Zimmer,Fang Xianghua,and Toshiko Kaneda.2005.The Active Life Expectancy of the Elderly and Its Longitudinal Transition in Beijing.Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 12:939-942.

    6 Qiao Xiaochun and Hu Ying.2017.Health Expectancy of Chinese Elderly and Its Provincial Variabilities.Population and Development 5:2-18.

    7 Yang Shenghui,Guo Wei,and Chen Wei.2012.The Changes of Disability-free Life Expectancy of Chinese Elderly:A Gender Perspective.South China Population 6:31-40.

    8 Guo Wei,Zhang Gang,and Yang Shenghui.2013.The Changes of Urban-rural Disparity in Disability-free Life Expectancy of Chinese Elderly under the Dualistic Structure.Population and Development 1:64-72.

    9 Yin Zhigang and Zhou Haiwang.2014.Shanghai Elderly Population Status and Willingness Development Report (1998-2013).Shanghai:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press.

    10 Wang Yi,Pan Mingdi,Wu Jianhua,and Xu Jingyi.2012.Dynamic Analysis on the Mortality Rate of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases in Luwan District of Shanghai City,2001-2010.Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention 3:191-194.

    11 Zhang Xiaofei,Hu Dayi,Ding Rongjing,Wang Huicheng,and Yan Liuxia.2012.Current Status and Epidemic Trends of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases in China.Chinese Journal of Hypertension 6:600.

    12 Feng Jin,Yu Yangyang,and Lou Pingyi.2015.Medical Demand and Growing Medical Costs in China:Based on the Urban-Rural Gap in Senior Citizens’ Medical Costs.Social Sciences in China 3:85-103.

    13 2013.Global Overview of Hypertension.WHO Press.

    14 Song Mengna,Cheng Xiao,Kong Jingxia,and Wang Hongmei.2018.Prevalence and Influencing Factors of Overweight and Obesity among Middle-Aged and Elderly People in China.Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention 8:804-808.

    15 Wang Wei and Zhao Dong.2005.Epidemiology of Hypertension in Chinese Elderly.Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 4:246-247.

    16 United Nations.2017.World Population Prospects.The 2017 Revision.

    17 Salomon J.A.,Wang H.,Freeman M.K.,Vos T.,Flaxman A.D.,et al.2012.Healthy Life Expectancy for 187 Countries,1990-2010:A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden Disease Study 2010.Lancet 380:2144-2162.

    18 Fries J.F.1980.Aging,Natural Death,and the Compression of Morbidity.New England Journal of Medicine 23:1370-1370.

    19 Olshansky S.J.,Rudberg M.A.,Carnes B.A.,Cassel C.K.,and Brody J.A.1991.Trading off Longer Life for Worsening Health:the Expansion of Morbidity Hypothesis.Journal of Aging and Health 2:194-216.

    20 Manton K.G.1982.Changing Concepts of Morbidity and Mortality in the Elderly Population.The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly.Health and Society 2:183-244.

    21 Crimmins E.M.and Beltrán-Sánchez H.2011.Mortality and Morbidity Trends:Is There Compression of Morbidity?The Journals of Gerontology Series B:Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 1:75-86.

    22 Manton K.G.,Gu X.,and Lamb V.L.2006.Change in Chronic Disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as Measured by Long-term Changes in Function and Health in the US Elderly Population.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 48:18374-18379.

    23 Robine J.M.and Michel J.P.2004.Looking Forward to a General Theory on Population Aging.The Journals of Gerontology Series A:Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 6:590-597.

    24 Gu D.,Dupre M.E.,Sautter J.,Zhu H.,Liu Y.,and Yi Z.2009.Frailty and Mortality among Chinese at Advanced Ages.Journals of Gerontology Series B:Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 2:279-289.

    25 Feng Q.,Zhen Z.,Gu D.,Wu B.,Duncan P.W.,and Purser J.L.2013.Trends in ADL and IADL Disability in Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Shanghai,China,1998-2008.Journals of Gerontology Series B:Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 3:476-485.

    26 Riley J.C.2001.Rising Life Expectancy:A Global History.Cambridge University Press.

This Article

ISSN:1000-6087

CN: 11-1489/C

Vol 44, No. 01, Pages 39-53

January 2020

Downloads:0

Share
Article Outline

摘要

  • 1 引言
  • 2 文献回顾
  • 3 数据和研究方法
  • 4 研究发现
  • 5 结论与讨论
  • 参考文献