Trend of disability-free life expectancy of the registered elderly in Shanghai from 1998 to 2013
(2.Population Research Institute of School of Social Development, East China Normal University)
【Abstract】The life expectancy of the registered elderly in Shanghai increased steadily from 1998 to 2013, but their disability-free life expectancy changed from an upward trend in 1998–2008 to a downward trend in 2008–2013. The proportion of disability-free life expectancy in life expectancy followed the model of expansion of morbidity from 1998 to 2003, the model of compression of morbidity from 2003 to 2008, and again the model of expansion of morbidity from 2008 to 2013. The increase in disability-free life expectancy from 1998 to 2008 was mainly due to the decline of mortality; the effect of the decline in disability-free rate from 2008 to 2013 was offset by that of the decline in mortality; and the increase in disability-free life expectancy was driven by both the decline in mortality and the increase in disability-free life expectancy from 2003 to 2008. The decline in disability-free life expectancy from 2008 to 2013 was mainly attributable to the decrease in the disability-free rate, which offset the increase brought about by the decline of mortality. The social and economic development, the advance of medical technology, and the implementation of medical security systems in Shanghai have all had impacts on the changes in the disability-free life expectancy of the elderly. The rapid increase in per capita health expenditure in Shanghai since 2008 may serve as a reflection of the transition of disability-free life expectancy for the elderly.
【Keywords】 healthy life expectancy; disability-free life expectancy; expansion of morbidity; compression of morbidity; the registered elderly in Shanghai;
(Translated by HE wenshan)
1 Du, P. & Li, Q. Population Research (人口研究), (5): 9–16 (2006).
2 Zeng, Y., Gu, D. & Land, K. C. Chinese Journal of Population Science (中国人口科学), (6): 2–13 (2007).
3 Wang, M. Population Research (人口研究), (5): 26–31 (1993).
4 Zhang, W. & Du, P. Population Research (人口研究), (5): 68–76 (2009).
5 Tang, Z., Xiang, M., Zimmer, Z. et al. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology (中华流行病学杂志), (12): 939–942 (2005).
6 Qiao, X. & Hu, Y. Population and Development (人口与发展), (5): 2–18 (2017).
7 Yang, S., Guo, W. & Chen, W. South China Population (南方人口), (6): 31–40 (2012).
8 Guo, W., Zhang, G. & Yang, S. Population and Development (人口与发展), (1): 64–72 (2013).
9 Yin, Z. & Zhou, H. 上海市老年人口状况与意愿发展报告 (1998–2013). Shanghai: Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press, (2014).
10 Wang, Y., Pan, M., Wu, J. et al. Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention (中华疾病控制杂志), (3): 191–194 (2012).
11 Zhang, X., Hu, D., Ding, R. et al. Chinese Journal of Hypertension (中华高血压杂志), (6): 600 (2012).
12 Feng, J., Yu, Y. & Lou, P. Social Sciences in China (中国社会科学), (3): 85–103 (2015).
13 WHO. A Global Brief on Hypertension. WHO Press, (2013).
14 Song, M., Cheng, X., Kong, J. et al. Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention (中华疾病控制杂志), (8): 804–808 (2018).
15 Wang, W. & Zhao, D. Chinese Journal of Geriatrics (中华老年医学杂志), (4): 246–247 (2005).
16 United Nations. 2017. World Population Prospects. The 2017 Revision.
17 Salomon J. A., Wang H., Freeman M. K., Vos T., Flaxman A. D., et al. 2012. Healthy Life Expectancy for 187 Countries, 1990–2010: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden Disease Study 2010. Lancet 380: 2144–2162.
18 Fries J. F. 1980. Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity. New England Journal of Medicine 23: 1370–1370.
19 Olshansky S. J., Rudberg M. A., Carnes B. A., Cassel C. K., and Brody J. A. 1991. Trading off Longer Life for Worsening Health: the Expansion of Morbidity Hypothesis. Journal of Aging and Health 2: 194–216.
20 Manton K. G. 1982. Changing Concepts of Morbidity and Mortality in the Elderly Population. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society 2: 183–244.
21 Crimmins E. M. and Beltrán-Sánchez H. 2011. Mortality and Morbidity Trends: Is There Compression of Morbidity? The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 1: 75–86.
22 Manton K. G., Gu X., and Lamb V. L. 2006. Change in Chronic Disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as Measured by Long-term Changes in Function and Health in the US Elderly Population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 48: 18374–18379.
23 Robine J. M. and Michel J. P. 2004. Looking Forward to a General Theory on Population Aging. The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 6: 590–597.
24 Gu D., Dupre M. E., Sautter J., Zhu H., Liu Y., and Yi Z. 2009. Frailty and Mortality among Chinese at Advanced Ages. Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 2: 279–289.
25 Feng Q., Zhen Z., Gu D., Wu B., Duncan P. W., and Purser J. L. 2013. Trends in ADL and IADL Disability in Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Shanghai, China, 1998–2008. Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 3: 476–485.
26 Riley J. C. 2001. Rising Life Expectancy: A Global History. Cambridge University Press.