China fertility status report, 2006–2016: an analysis based on 2017 China Fertility Survey
【Abstract】Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey, this paper analyzes the national fertility level, fertility intentions, contraceptive use, and childbearing and parenting services. The results show that, from 2006 to 2016, the mean ages at the first marriage and the first birth increased by 2.7 and 2.6 years, respectively. The total fertility rate between 2006 and 2011 was between 1.60 and 1.70 and fluctuated between 2012 and 2016, peaking in the years of 2012 and 2016. Compared with the curves of age-specific fertility rate in 2006 and 2011, the one in 2016 shifted significantly to the right. Affected by the selective two-child policy and the universal two-child policy, the proportion of the second parity has increased since 2012, while the trend is opposite for the proportion of the first parity. Since 2011, the sex ratio at birth has declined slightly. For women of childbearing ages, the ideal number of children is 1.96, while the intended number of children is 1.75. The rate of contraceptive use of currently married women of childbearing ages is 84.7%. About 80.8% of children aged 3–5 are enrolled in the kindergarten, 34.9% are in public institutions and 65.1% are in private institutions. The future trend of Chinese fertility is also discussed.
【Keywords】 fertility level; fertility intentions; contraceptive methods; childbearing and parenting services;
. Jiang Yu, Zhao Xueqing, Qi Jianan and Han Feng of China Population and Development Research Center also participated in the writing of this essay. [^Back]
. ① The six surveys were the 1982 national 1% population fertility rate sample survey, the 1988 national fertility and birth control sample survey, the first survey of the national family planning information system in 1992, the 1997 national population and reproductive health survey, the 2001 national family planning/reproductive health survey, and the 2006 national population and family planning survey. [^Back]
1 Jin, Y. Population Research (人口研究), (1) 3–17 (2014).
2 Guo, Z. International Economic Review (国际经济评论), (6) 112–126 (2010).
3 Guo, Z. International Economic Review (国际经济评论), (2) 100–119 (2015).
4 Hao, J. & Qiu, C. South China Population (南方人口), (5) 27–33 (2011).
5 Cui, H., Xu, L. & Li, R. Population Research (人口研究), (1) 10–21 (2013).
6 Yang, F. & Zhao, M. Population Research (人口研究), (2) 54–65 (2013).
7 Chen, W. Academia Bimestrie (学海), (1) 67–75 (2016).
8 Yang, J. Journal of Chinese Academy of Governance (国家行政学院学报), (3) 89–96 (2018).
9 Zhuang, Y., Yang, S., Qi, J. et al. Population Research (人口研究), (4) 104–112 (2018).