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老年人独立生活能力变化轨迹的个体和总体差异研究

李强1 张震2

(1.华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心暨社会发展学院)
(2.复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院人口研究所)

【摘要】文章使用中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查2002~2011年数据,分析老年人独立生活能力在个体和总体层面的不同的变化轨迹,并通过分解分析揭示了死亡选择性在其中的作用。研究发现,独立生活能力较差的老人更易受到死亡选择性的影响而较早地离开队列,留下独立生活能力较强的老人,使得老年人的独立生活能力在总体层面的下降较为缓慢;但是对存活者个体来说,他们独立生活能力的衰退快速得多。个体-总体差异具有明显的队列效应,较年长队列的独立生活能力的总体-个体变化的差异较大,而较年轻队列的差异则较小。老年人独立生活能力在总体层面的缓慢下降对正经历着快速老龄化的中国来说是利好,但在个体层面上的快速衰退对老年人及其家庭而言则是巨大挑战。

【关键词】 老年人;独立生活能力;死亡选择性;总体变化;个体变化;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家自然科学基金 (71503082, 71473044) ; 上海市哲学社会科学规划基金 (2013BSH003) 的联合资助;

Changes of the independence in daily living at both the population and the individual levels among the older population in China

LI Qiang1 ZHANG Zhen2

(1.The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies and School of Social Development, East China Normal University)
(2.Institute of Population Research of School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University.)

【Abstract】Based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (CLHLS2002–2011), this study assesses the age trajectories of the loss of independence in daily living for five cohorts aged 65–69, 70–79, 80–89, 90–99 and 100+ at the 2002 survey, respectively, both at the individual and the overall level. Results show that the decline of independence at the overall level is more gradual than that at the individual level. A decomposition analysis further reveals that the difference in the pace of decline of independence can be largely attributed to selective mortality and loss to follow up. Moreover, such difference varies across cohorts. For the population as a whole, a longer life expectancy does not necessarily result in a rapid decline of independence. For individuals, however, prolonging lifespan tend to be accompanied with deterioration of independence except for the young old.

【Keywords】 the elderly; independence in daily living; selective mortality; overall change; individual change;

【DOI】

【Funds】 National Natural Science Foundation of China (71503082, 71473044); Shanghai Fund for Philosophy and Social Science Studies (2013BSH003);

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This Article

ISSN:1000-6087

CN: 11-1489/C

Vol 42, No. 05, Pages 45-55

September 2018

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Research background
  • 2 Data and methodology
  • 3 Analysis results
  • 4 Conclusion and discussion
  • References