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父母如何影响女性的二孩生育计划——来自中国城市的证据

靳永爱1 赵梦晗1 宋健1

(1.中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心)

【摘要】文章使用2016年全国6省12市的生育调查数据, 分析了中国城市地区父母对2044岁已婚已育一孩女性的二孩生育计划的影响, 并讨论了家庭收入水平如何在代际影响中发挥调节作用。结果显示, 父母通过照料支持和表达自身生育偏好影响女性的二孩生育计划, 父母提供二孩照料支持、父母的二孩或多孩偏好以及性别偏好会显著提高女性有二孩生育计划的可能性。家庭收入水平不仅对二孩生育计划有显著的正向影响作用 (即收入水平越高的家庭, 更可能有二孩生育计划) , 还在父母性别偏好对女性生育计划的影响中发挥了重要的调节作用。父母性别偏好对女性二孩生育计划的影响在收入水平不同的家庭间存在差异, 在收入水平越高的家庭, 父母的性别偏好产生的影响越大。

【关键词】 二孩生育计划;父母影响;生育偏好;工具性支持;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社会科学基金项目“‘全面两孩’政策实施后妇女生育水平及其决定因素研究” (16CRK003) , “出生性别比失衡的生育选择机制研究” (15BRK010) ; 国家社会科学基金重大项目“全面两孩生育政策的实施效应研究” (15ZDC036) 资助;

Parental influence on women’s second-child birth plan in urban China

JIN Yongai1 ZHAO Menghan1 SONG Jian1

(1.Center for Population Development Studies, Renmin University of China)

【Abstract】Using data from the 2016 fertility survey conducted in 12 cities of 6 provinces in Chinese mainland, this study discussed the intergenerational effects on women’s plan for a second child in the era of universal two-child policy. We only focus on the main targeted group of this policy change—married women aged 20–44 who have only one child in urban China, contributing to the discussions regarding future fertility trend. Overall, the results suggest that parental childcare supports and fertility preferences significantly affect women’s birth plan. Specifically, the probability of having a second-child birth plan is higher if parents can provide childcare assistance, prefer to have two or more grandchildren or have sex preference. Also, family income is positively associated with women’s plan to have a second child and moderates parental effects. The influence of parental sex preference on women’s second child plan is stronger in families with higher income.

【Keywords】 second-child birth plan; parental influence; birth preference; instrumental support;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Projects of National Social Science Fund of China (16CRK003, 15BRK010); Major Project of National Social Science Fund of China (15ZDC036);

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① The study also makes models and analyses of parents and parents-in-law respectively, and the conclusion remains unchanged. [^Back]

    [2]. ② It should be noted that there are only 89 people whose parents and parents-in-law have different preference for the number of children (one party wishes to have two or more children and the other wishes to have one). The conclusion is not affected whether these samples are deleted or put into any category. In order not to lose these samples, we classified either of parents who want to have two or more children into the category where both parents want to have two or more children. [^Back]

    [3]. ① Chi-square tests are all significant. [^Back]

    [4]. ① Calculation method: (exp(0.622) − 1) * 100%. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1000-6087

CN: 11-1489/C

Vol 42, No. 05, Pages 17-29

September 2018

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Literature review and theoretical hypothesis
  • 3 Data and method
  • 4 Analysis result
  • 5 Conclusion and discussion
  • Footnote

    References