父母如何影响女性的二孩生育计划——来自中国城市的证据

靳永爱1 赵梦晗1 宋健1

(1.中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心)

【摘要】文章使用2016年全国6省12市的生育调查数据, 分析了中国城市地区父母对2044岁已婚已育一孩女性的二孩生育计划的影响, 并讨论了家庭收入水平如何在代际影响中发挥调节作用。结果显示, 父母通过照料支持和表达自身生育偏好影响女性的二孩生育计划, 父母提供二孩照料支持、父母的二孩或多孩偏好以及性别偏好会显著提高女性有二孩生育计划的可能性。家庭收入水平不仅对二孩生育计划有显著的正向影响作用 (即收入水平越高的家庭, 更可能有二孩生育计划) , 还在父母性别偏好对女性生育计划的影响中发挥了重要的调节作用。父母性别偏好对女性二孩生育计划的影响在收入水平不同的家庭间存在差异, 在收入水平越高的家庭, 父母的性别偏好产生的影响越大。

【关键词】 二孩生育计划; 父母影响; 生育偏好; 工具性支持;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社会科学基金项目“‘全面两孩’政策实施后妇女生育水平及其决定因素研究” (16CRK003) , “出生性别比失衡的生育选择机制研究” (15BRK010) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“全面两孩生育政策的实施效应研究” (15ZDC036) 资助

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    脚注

    [1]. (1) 研究也对父母和公婆分别做了模型和分析, 结论不变。 [^Back]

    [2]. (2) 需要说明的是, 父母和公婆生育数量偏好不一致 (一方希望生育2孩及以上而另一方希望生育一个孩子) 的仅有89人, 无论是删掉这些样本还是放入任意一个类别中, 结论并不受影响, 为了不损失样本, 将父母中任意一方希望生育2个或以上的孩子归入父母希望生育2个或以上的孩子。 [^Back]

    [3]. (1) 卡方检验均显著。 [^Back]

    [4]. (1) 计算方法: (exp (0.622) -1) *100%. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1000-6087

CN: 11-1489/C

Vol 42, No. 05, Pages 17-29

September 2018

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Article Outline

摘要

  • 1 引言
  • 2 文献回顾与理论假设
  • 3 数据与方法
  • 4 分析结果
  • 5 结论与讨论
  • 脚注

    参考文献