Parental influence on women’s second-child birth plan in urban China

JIN Yongai1 ZHAO Menghan1 SONG Jian1

(1.Center for Population Development Studies, Renmin University of China)

【Abstract】Using data from the 2016 fertility survey conducted in 12 cities of 6 provinces in Chinese mainland, this study discussed the intergenerational effects on women’s plan for a second child in the era of universal two-child policy. We only focus on the main targeted group of this policy change—married women aged 20–44 who have only one child in urban China, contributing to the discussions regarding future fertility trend. Overall, the results suggest that parental childcare supports and fertility preferences significantly affect women’s birth plan. Specifically, the probability of having a second-child birth plan is higher if parents can provide childcare assistance, prefer to have two or more grandchildren or have sex preference. Also, family income is positively associated with women’s plan to have a second child and moderates parental effects. The influence of parental sex preference on women’s second child plan is stronger in families with higher income.

【Keywords】 second-child birth plan; parental influence; birth preference; instrumental support;


【Funds】 Projects of National Social Science Fund of China (16CRK003, 15BRK010) Major Project of National Social Science Fund of China (15ZDC036)

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(Translated by ZHAO Wenyue)


    [1]. ① The study also makes models and analyses of parents and parents-in-law respectively, and the conclusion remains unchanged. [^Back]

    [2]. ② It should be noted that there are only 89 people whose parents and parents-in-law have different preference for the number of children (one party wishes to have two or more children and the other wishes to have one). The conclusion is not affected whether these samples are deleted or put into any category. In order not to lose these samples, we classified either of parents who want to have two or more children into the category where both parents want to have two or more children. [^Back]

    [3]. ① Chi-square tests are all significant. [^Back]

    [4]. ① Calculation method: (exp(0.622) − 1) * 100%. [^Back]


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This Article


CN: 11-1489/C

Vol 42, No. 05, Pages 17-29

September 2018


Article Outline


  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Literature review and theoretical hypothesis
  • 3 Data and method
  • 4 Analysis result
  • 5 Conclusion and discussion
  • Footnote