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中国经济社会发展与生育水平变动关系再探索

陶涛1 金光照2 杨凡1

(1.中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心)
(2.中国人民大学社会与人口学院)
【知识点链接】人类发展指数

【摘要】文章利用1982、1990、2000、2010年4次中国人口普查计算数据和学者调整数据, 考察中国各省、自治区、直辖市 (本文简称各省 (区、市) ) TFR和相应年份HDI之间的关系, 发现各省 (区、市) HDI迅速提高、地区差异不断缩小, TFR不断下降、地区差异也不断缩小, HDI与TFR呈现负向关系, 且这种经济社会发展对生育水平的抑制作用在逐渐降低。进一步将各省 (区、市) 按生育政策类型划分后, 各类地区两变量依然呈负相关, 并未出现尾部上翘或呈“反J型”, 尽管上海、北京、天津市在2010年的HDI已经达到0.788以上的极高人类发展水平。中国目前尚未达到类似西方部分发达国家生育水平随经济社会发展自动回升的阶段。如果政策不调整, 全国各省 (区、市) 生育水平随经济社会发展还会继续下降, 尚未触底, 及时放开政策能有效抑制TFR进一步下降。

【关键词】 总和生育率;人类发展指数;政策调整;政策效果;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国人口负增长研究” (16BRK004) ; 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“低生育率的中国模式” (15JJD840003) 的资助;

Re-examining China’s provincial socioeconomic development and fertility change

TAO Tao1 JIN Guangzhao2 YANG Fan1

(1.Population Development Studies Center, Renmin University of China)
(2.School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China)
【Knowledge Link】human development index

【Abstract】This study explores the relationship between China’s provincial total fertility rate (TFR) calculated from census data and adjusted by scholars in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 and the provincial human development index (HDI). China experienced rapid increase in the HDI and continuous decrease in the TFR at all provinces and shrinking regional disparities in both of them. The two variables are negatively correlated while the inhibition effect of HDI on TFR is gradually decreased. After dividing regions by different policy types, we find that the two still have negative correlation and without showing a J-curve relation in different category of regions, although Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin have reached the very high human development level which exceeds 0.788 in 2010. Unlike some western developed countries, China’s fertility level does not turn to rise with the socioeconomic development. Without adjusting fertility policy, the fertility level of all the provinces would continue declining with the socioeconomic development. A timely releasing of fertility policy can effectively restrain further decline of TFR.

【Keywords】 total fertility rate; human development index; policy adjustment; policy effect;

【DOI】

【Funds】 General Project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (16BRK004); Major Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Science of the Ministry of Education of China (15JJD840003);

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    Footnote

    [1]. Human Development Report of 2010 divides equally 2010 HDI ranking of all countries in the world by the quartile method and divides the level of human development into four categories: very high human development (HDI ≥ 0.788), high human development (0.677 ≤ HDI < 0.788), medium human development (0.488 ≤ HDI < 0.677), and low human development (HDI < 0.488) (UNDP, 2010). [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1000-6087

CN: 11-1489/C

Vol 41, No. 06, Pages 33-44

November 2017

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Article Outline

Knowledge

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Research ideas and data methods
  • 3 Impact of TFR data quality
  • 4 Relationship between socioeconomic development and fertility level
  • 5 Impact of regional disparities in policies
  • 6 Conclusions and discussions
  • Footnote

    References