中国经济社会发展与生育水平变动关系再探索

陶涛¹ 金光照² 杨凡¹

(1.中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心)
(2.中国人民大学社会与人口学院)

【知识点链接】人类发展指数

【摘要】文章利用1982、1990、2000、2010年4次中国人口普查计算数据和学者调整数据, 考察中国各省、自治区、直辖市 (本文简称各省 (区、市) ) TFR和相应年份HDI之间的关系, 发现各省 (区、市) HDI迅速提高、地区差异不断缩小, TFR不断下降、地区差异也不断缩小, HDI与TFR呈现负向关系, 且这种经济社会发展对生育水平的抑制作用在逐渐降低。进一步将各省 (区、市) 按生育政策类型划分后, 各类地区两变量依然呈负相关, 并未出现尾部上翘或呈“反J型”, 尽管上海、北京、天津市在2010年的HDI已经达到0.788以上的极高人类发展水平。中国目前尚未达到类似西方部分发达国家生育水平随经济社会发展自动回升的阶段。如果政策不调整, 全国各省 (区、市) 生育水平随经济社会发展还会继续下降, 尚未触底, 及时放开政策能有效抑制TFR进一步下降。

【关键词】 总和生育率; 人类发展指数; 政策调整; 政策效果;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国人口负增长研究” (16BRK004) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“低生育率的中国模式” (15JJD840003) 的资助

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脚注

[1]. (1) 2010年《人类发展报告》将世界各国当年HDI排序用四分位数法等分, 将人类发展水平划分为4类, 分别为极高人类发展水平 (HDI≥0.788) 、高人类发展水平 (0.677≤HDI<0.788) 、中等人类发展水平 (0.488≤HDI<0.677) 、低人类发展水平 (HDI<0.488) (UNDP, 2010) 。 [^Back]

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