Women’s fertility preference and fertility plan in urban China: an empirical study on the universal two-child policy
【Abstract】Using the 2016 fertility survey data from 12 cities in 6 provinces of urban China, this study empirically investigates the fertility preference, fertility plan and their determinants for married women with one child in urban families. We find that 24.4% of women have a timetable for the birth of a second child, while 5.1% of women have intention but no timetable. Family backgrounds such as the number of siblings and whether a woman lives with her parents-in-law have significant impact on the fertility preference but are insignificantly associated with the fertility plan. In contrast, economic costs and caregiving burdens significantly affect women’s second childbearing plan but are insignificantly associated with the fertility preference. Gender preferences facilitate the bearing of a second child, meaning that women whose first child is a girl are more likely to plan for a second child. Finally, the gap between women’s fertility plan and fertility preference is mainly driven by practical factors such as women’s age, household income, availability of care and gender preference.
【Keywords】 the universal two-child policy; fertility preference; fertility plan; determinants;
(Translated by HE Lin)
. ① The women whose desired number of children is more than 2 account for 1.16%, while the women whose planned number of children is more than 2 account for 0.13%. [^Back]
. ① The women whose desired number of children is 0 only account for 2.1%. [^Back]
. ① We have placed the same independent variables in the two models of fertility preference and fertility plans for comparison and analysis. In the meantime, as fertility preference will affect fertility plans, we have added the variable of the desired number of children into the model of fertility plans. Results show that the desired number of children has a significant impact on fertility plans while the influence and significance of other variables remain the same. The model results are not included in this study due to limitations of the length. [^Back]
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