Population trends in China under the universal two-child policy
(2.Postdoctoral Research Station, Tsinghua University)
【Abstract】China’s universal two-child policy will definitely impact the future development of the population. This paper identifies the target women of the universal two-child policy by family type, fertility history and fertility intention, according to which, we calculate the number of extra births and related fertility rates and patterns. Scenarios of population forecast are developed using the model of the parity progressive population dynamics. Results show that the universal two-child policy will produce the additional population of 21 million during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The population peak will be postponed to 2030 standing at 1.466 billion, slightly larger than that without adjusting policies. Meanwhile, the decline in the population and labor force will slow down, and labor supply will increase while the pace of population ageing will decrease after 2035. However, the long-term declining trend of the total population will not change. China’s population will continue to shrink at an average rate of 6.4 million per year after 2030, and will be reduced to 1.016 billion by the end of the century.
【Keywords】 fertility policy; population forecast; model of parity progression population dynamics; population size; age structure;
. ① For convenience of expression, in the following parts “childbearing-age women who has one child already of couples neither of whom is an only child is generally referred to as childbearing-age women of couples neither of whom is the only child with one child. Equally, child-bearing-age women of other family types and parity structures are generally referred to as women of couples neither of whom is the only child with two children, women of couples neither of whom isan only child without children, women of couples either of whom is an only child with two children, women of couples either of whom is an only child with one child, women of couples either of whom is an only child without children, and women of couples both of whom are only children with two children, women of couples both of whom are only children with one child and women of couples both of whom are the only children without children. [^Back]
. ② In terms of the two-child policy for couples either of whom is an only child launched in 2014, the potential target women of this policy adjustment are those in couples either of whom is an only child with one child. In terms of the universal two-child policy initiated in 2016, women of couples neither of whom is an only child with one kid are potential targets of this policy adjustment. [^Back]
. ① Family types here refer to family of which either parent is thean only child, both parents are only children and neither parents is the an only child, and other types distinguished by the number of children they have. [^Back]
. ① The book of Li Jianmin, Yuan Xin and Wang Jinying offers the calculation formula and method for future mortality probability. This research adopts their method to calculate future age-specific mortality probability in rural and urban areas. Please refer to Li, J., Yuan, X. & Wang, J. 持续的挑战——21世纪中国人口形势、问题与对策. Beijing: China Science Publishing & Media Ltd, 40, 2000. [^Back]
. ② Existing literature includes comparative studies of population urbanization and economic growth analysis in the process of economic development in Wang, J. China Population, Resources and Environment (中国人口、资源与环境), (5) (2013); the empirical analysis and prediction on level and speed of China’s urbanization in Jian, X. & Huang, K. Economic Research Journal (经济研究), (3) (2013); and research results on prediction of trends of China’s urbanization in Jian, X. & Huang, K. Modern Economic Science (当代经济科学), (4) (2013). This research comprehensively uses these methods and data to predict future development trends of China’s urbanization. [^Back]
. ① The data is generalized from materials provided by Population Census Office of the the National Bureau of Statistics. Special thanks to Cui Hongyan for her generous help. [^Back]
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