婚前同居对初婚年龄的影响研究——基于Heckman二阶段模型的分析

梁同贵1

(1.华东政法大学社会发展学院, 上海 201620)

【摘要】在现代社会中,初婚年龄持续攀升,婚前同居现象越来越多地出现。那么婚前同居与初婚年龄之间有没有关系?本文基于婚前同居对离婚影响的选择假说与经历假说进一步探讨两种假说与初婚年龄之间的关系。选择假说认为同居者自身特征促使他们追求思想解放,消极地影响着婚姻稳定性,因此与其同居伴侣之间并不想建立一个长期的契约。由此推测这些积极影响同居的特征因素会给结婚带来消极影响,婚前同居就会推延初婚年龄;经历假说认为共同生活的经历将会改变同居者对婚姻的认识,他们不再强烈地致力于追求婚姻的身份。他们将会接受婚前同居这种暂时性的本质。很多夫妇认为同居提供了一个婚姻的替代品,结婚的欲望由此下降。因此这也将推延初婚年龄。除两个假说外,同居者想要通过同居搜集更多对方的信息,这种想要更多地了解对方的想法也将推延初婚年龄。在理论分析的基础上,本文基于2010年CFPS抽样调查数据,采用Heckman二阶段模型纠正婚前同居的自选择性带来的偏误并检验婚前同居推延初婚年龄的研究假设。研究结果发现婚前同居使女性与男性的初婚年龄分别推迟了0.415岁与0.868岁。在控制婚前同居的自选择性后,婚前同居对女性与男性初婚年龄的影响仍然很大且显著,初婚年龄分别推迟了0.431岁与0.890岁,证明婚前同居将会提高初婚年龄。这进一步明晰了婚前同居在我国家庭形成过程中的作用。婚前同居对初婚年龄的推延作用无疑为我国全面二孩政策下出生人口数量增长带来消极影响。

【关键词】 婚前同居; 初婚年龄; Heckman二阶段模型;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 2019年度华东政法大学科学研究项目:生育政策:调整效果研判与未来走向选择(19HZK025)

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This Article

ISSN:1004-129X

CN: 22-1017/C

Vol 42, No. 01, Pages 5-16

January 2020

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Article Outline

摘要

  • 一、理论背景与研究假设
  • 二、数据库介绍、整理与分析步骤
  • 三、结果分析
  • 四、结论与讨论
  • 参考文献