Analysis of urbanization, industrialization and population agglomeration in Northeast China based on PVAR model
(2.Changchun Institute of Urban Planning & Design, Changchun, Jilin 130000)
【Abstract】There is great significance to study the flow and spatial distribution of Northeast population during the process of urbanization and industrialization. Based on the analysis of the historical evolution process and the development characteristics of urbanization and industrialization in Northeast China, this paper uses the relevant urban data from 1987 to 2015, the PVAR model, the GMM, Granger causality test, impulse response, and other methods to study the relationship between industrialization, urbanization, and population agglomeration in Northeast China. The results show that: the increase in urbanization level has strengthened the influence of the four central cities, Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun and Harbin, which is beneficial for the population of the whole province to gather in four central cities. Under the influence of heavy industry development model and capital-intensive investment tendencies, the increase in the level of industrialization is not conducive to the agglomeration of the province’s population to the four central cities. In addition, the slow marketization process and the influence of the command economy have weakened the cyclical cumulative effect between industrialization and urbanization, resulting in weak interaction between industrialization and urbanization, the duration of which is not long. In further discussion, the static panel data model is used for robustness testing. The findings are consistent with the PVAR model. This article suggests that in the context of the loss of the Northeast population, Northeast region should give full play to the economies of scale and resource clustering advantages of big cities, reasonably arrange the proportion of industry, improve the industrial layout, determine the development relationship between heavy industry and light industry, and promote the development of industrialization to a higher level. In addition, it is necessary to reduce the frictional cost and coordination cost between urbanization and industrialization, and realize the interactive and coordinated development of the two in order to bring the advantages of population agglomeration and drive the development of the Northeast regional economy.
【Keywords】 industrialization; urbanization; population agglomeration; Northeast China;
(Translated by ZHONG Yehong)
. ① The relevant explanation of population changes in Northeast China of National Development and Reform Commission in December 2016. [^Back]
. ① The urbanization index is measured by the proportion of non-agricultural population in the total population. [^Back]
. ② The industrialization index is measured by the proportion of the output value of the secondary industry in GDP. [^Back]
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