Total population of adjustment target of fertility policy and re-checking of expected policy effect

WANG Guangzhou1

(1.Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China 100028)

【Abstract】On the basis of literature reviews of the existing problems of fertility policy adjustment by using macro aggregated data and micro case data, this paper points out that, under the condition of the lack of two generations’ childbearing history data, researching the total number and structure of targeted population of selective two-child policy (couples one of whom has no sibling) is very difficult. Based on the 2005 1% population sample survey, 2013 fertility willingness survey, 2014 population change sample survey, and 2015 1% population sample survey, compared with percentage data of selective two-child policy target women of childbearing age and universal two-child policy target women of childbearing age from different sources and the same cohort, this paper indicates that 2014 and 2015 sample surveys of National Bureau of Statistics are highly consistent and reliable. Before the adjustment of selective two-child policy, the prediction will overestimate the only child percentage and the total population of selective two-child policy target women of childbearing age with the first children, if only using data from 2005 and 2013. According to 2014 and 2015 surveys, this paper predicts that selective two-child policy target women of childbearing age with the first children account for 10 percent of all only-child women of childbearing age in 2014 and 2015. The target population number of selective two-child policy is less than 15 million, and it is impossible to achieve over 15 million. In 2015, the total number of second children of selective two-child target women of childbearing age with the first children is about 0.5 million, far lower than 2 million of the estimation of National Health and Family Planning Commission. In 2015, universal two-child policy target women of childbearing age with one child account for 85 percent of all one-child women of childbearing age. Universal two-child policy has new target population number of around 85 million, with a small possibility of reaching or exceeding 90 million. Even without universal two-child policy, in 2015, the number of second children of non-agricultural universal two-child policy target population is over 1.3 million, while that of agricultural universal two-child policy target population is over 2.5 million.

【Keywords】 selective two-child policy; universal two-child policy; fertility policy; target population;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China (16ZDA090)

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① “Couples one of whom has no sibling” means that husbands or wives are only children, and “couples with no sibling” means that both husbands and wives are only children. [^Back]

    [2]. ② “Couples both with siblings” means that neither husbands nor wives are only children. [^Back]

    [3]. ① 2014 national population change sample survey will be hereinafter referred to as 2014 sample survey for short. [^Back]

    [4]. ② 2015 1% national population sample survey will be hereinafter referred to as 2015 sample survey for short. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1004-129X

CN: 22-1017/C

Vol 39, No. 06, Pages 5-16

November 2017

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Research questions
  • 2 Research methods and data sources
  • 3 Retest of total target population
  • 4 Re-recognition of expected effect of fertility policy adjustment
  • 5 Research conclusions and discussions
  • Footnote

    References