The impact of industrial agglomeration and structural sophistication on Beijing's population size: expansion or convergence?

WANG Yingying1 TONG Yufen1

(1.School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China 100070)

【Abstract】The excessive growth and large scale of population is one of Beijing's major problems, which have drawn attention from all social circles. This article uses panel data of Beijing's 16 districts and counties from 2006 to 2013 to analyze the impact of industrial agglomeration and industrial structure sophistication on Beijing's population growth with fixed effect model. The conclusions are as follows: the agglomeration of the secondary industry in Beijing plays a role in promoting the growth of population size while the agglomeration of the tertiary industry, especially the agglomeration of modern service industry, has a negative effect on Beijing's population growth. Industrial structure sophistication has a significantly inhibitory effect on Beijing's population size growth. Industrial structure sophistication has significant spillover effect on the population increase of Beijing. As the sophistication of the industrial structure deepens, the inhibitory effect of the tertiary industry, especially modern service industry, on the growth of the population size will grow stronger than the promoting effect of the agglomeration of the secondary industry; with the combined effect of both, Beijing's population size will tend to converge. The conclusions of this article, to some extent, verify the existing qualitative studies of the problem, and provide theoretical support and regulatory direction for the government to regulate the population through industrial policies.

【Keywords】 industrial agglomeration; industrial structural sophistication; Beijing's population size;

【DOI】

【Funds】 2014 Academic Programme for New Projects of Capital University of Economics and Business: Research on Reasonable Arrangement of Labor in Capital Area (CUEB2014003) Programme of Innovative Team Build-up and Teaching Staff Career Development of Beijing Higher Education Institutions: Research on Population, Environment and Development in Capital (IDHT20130523) Beijing Planning Programme of Philosophy and Social Science: Research on Beijing's Population Growth and Regulation Strategies (12SHB001)

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(Translated by ZHANG Ning)

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This Article

ISSN:1004-129X

CN: 22-1017/C

Vol 37, No. 06, Pages 5-13

November 2015

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Current situations and features of Beijing's population and industries
  • 3 Model specification and data
  • 4 Quantitative analysis
  • 5 Conclusion
  • References