Study on the impact of selective two-child policy on sex ratio at birth

HUANG Kuangshi1

(1.China Population and Development Research Center, Beijing 100081)

【Abstract】If the family planning policy can lead to the increase of sex ratio at birth, then the fertility policy adjustment such as the selective two-child policy is bound to ease the momentum of the increase of sex ratio at birth. To test this assumption, this study employs the latest data on the sex ratio at birth from all the provinces to investigate the effects of the selective two-child policy on the sex ratio at birth. This paper concludes that the selective two-child policy will ease the sex ratio at birth of the first child but worsen the sex ratio at birth of the second child. Because for a couple having son preference the selective two-child policy actually means another chance to have a son, which will worsen the sex ratio at birth of the second child. Therefore, the key for easing the sex ratio at birth is to change fertility culture of son preference.

【Keywords】 selective two-child policy; sex ratio at birth; fertility policy;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Ministry of Technology, “the 12th Five-Year Plan National Technology Support Plan” project: Support System of Mathematical Model of Population and Development and Integrated Policymaking (2012BAI40B01)

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(Translated by ZHAO Ming)

    References

    [1]Qiao, X. Jiangsu Social Sciences (江苏社会科学),(3):158–164 (2008).

    [2]Yang, J. Population Research (人口研究),(3):30–41 (2006).

    [3]Zhang, E. Population Research (人口研究), (1):11–18 (2005).

    [4]Shi, R. Population Research (人口研究), (2):66–72 (2013).

This Article

ISSN:1004-129X

CN: 22-1017/C

Vol 37, No. 04, Pages 5-11

July 2015

Downloads:6

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1. Selective two-child policy is later than the turning point of sex ratio at birth
  • 2. Empirical study on the influence of the selective two-child policy on the sex ratio at birth
  • 3. Theoretical thinking on the effects of the selective two-child policy on sex ratio at birth
  • 4. Discussion and conclusion
  • References