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中国贫困动态变化分解:1991~2015年

罗良清1 平卫英1

(1.江西财经大学统计学院江西省应用统计研究中心)

【摘要】针对现有贫困变化分解研究中存在的问题,在贫困变化分解中考虑人口因素的影响,系统考察贫困变化受经济增长、不平等和人口3个方面的综合作用,分析中国城镇化进程对城乡贫困的影响,为因地制宜制定减贫战略提供依据。从各阶段的贫困变化分解结果来看,中国大规模减贫离不开经济增长提供的物质基础。不平等始终是使贫困状况恶化的主要因素,导致贫困群体从经济增长中得到的份额逐渐减少。人口增速的减缓及贫困人口数量的显著下降有效地促进平均收入的提高,进而对贫困程度的降低起到显著的正向作用。人口流动对城市和农村贫困变化的影响力度是不同的,其对农村贫困指数的降低作用更为显著,说明城市发展确实是减轻农村贫困的一个重要途径。但人口流动对农村贫困程度的影响随着时间的推移逐渐减缓,乡村振兴战略的提出和实施非常必要且及时。另外,2011年以来,贫困缺口指数的整体下降速度趋缓,说明在绝对贫困得到有效解决之后,剩余贫困人口的贫困程度越来越深、减贫难度较大,贫困阶层有固化态势,需要采取更有针对性的帮扶措施。

【关键词】 贫困变化分解;经济增长;不平等;人口;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社科基金重大项目(17ZDA094); 国家社科基金重点项目(18ATJ001);

Decomposition of the dynamic changes in poverty in China: 1991–2015

LUO Liangqing1 PING Weiying1

(1.School of Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Research Center of Applied Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics)

【Abstract】Against the problems in the existing research on the decomposition of poverty changes, this paper took into consideration the impact of population factor in decomposing poverty changes, systematically examined the comprehensive effect of economic growth, inequality, and population on poverty changes, analyzed the impact of China’s urbanization process on urban and rural poverty, and provided ground for formulating poverty reduction strategies based on local conditions. According to the decomposition results of poverty changes in all periods, China’s massive poverty reduction is closely related to the material foundation laid by economic growth. Inequality, as always the main factor worsening poverty, has led to decreasing share of poor population in economic growth. The slow-down of the population growth and the significant decrease of the poor population have effectively driven up average income and then produced a significantly positive effect on poverty reduction. The impact of population migration is different on urban and rural poverty changes, namely that its effect on the dropping of the rural poverty index is more significant, which indicates that urban development is indeed an important way to reduce rural poverty. However, with gradually eased impact of population migration on rural poverty over time, the proposal and implementation of rural revitalization strategy are necessary and timely. In addition, since 2011, the overall drop in the poverty gap index has slowed down, which suggests that with the absolute poverty effectively resolved, the remaining poor people are getting poorer comparatively and it is more difficult to reduce poverty; namely, the poor class has a trend of rigidity, which requires more targeted assistance measures.

【Keywords】 decomposition of poverty change; economic growth; inequality; population;

【DOI】

【Funds】 The National Social Science Fund of China (17ZDA094); The National Social Science Fund of China (8ATJ001);

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① It is also known as the redistribution effect. [^Back]

    [2]. ② Source: China Statistical Yearbook (中国统计年鉴) (1992–2001). [^Back]

    [3]. ③ Source: China Statistical Yearbook (中国统计年鉴) (2001–2012). [^Back]

    [4]. ④ Source: China Statistical Yearbook (中国统计年鉴) (2012–2016). [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1002-5502

CN: 11-1235/F

Vol 36, No. 02, Pages 27-40+216

February 2020

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Literature review and research hypotheses
  • 3 Index construction and decomposition principle of the dynamic changes in poverty
  • 4 Empirical analysis
  • 5 Analysis and conclusion
  • Footnote

    References