Decomposition of the dynamic changes in poverty in China: 1991–2015
【Abstract】Against the problems in the existing research on the decomposition of poverty changes, this paper took into consideration the impact of population factor in decomposing poverty changes, systematically examined the comprehensive effect of economic growth, inequality, and population on poverty changes, analyzed the impact of China’s urbanization process on urban and rural poverty, and provided ground for formulating poverty reduction strategies based on local conditions. According to the decomposition results of poverty changes in all periods, China’s massive poverty reduction is closely related to the material foundation laid by economic growth. Inequality, as always the main factor worsening poverty, has led to decreasing share of poor population in economic growth. The slow-down of the population growth and the significant decrease of the poor population have effectively driven up average income and then produced a significantly positive effect on poverty reduction. The impact of population migration is different on urban and rural poverty changes, namely that its effect on the dropping of the rural poverty index is more significant, which indicates that urban development is indeed an important way to reduce rural poverty. However, with gradually eased impact of population migration on rural poverty over time, the proposal and implementation of rural revitalization strategy are necessary and timely. In addition, since 2011, the overall drop in the poverty gap index has slowed down, which suggests that with the absolute poverty effectively resolved, the remaining poor people are getting poorer comparatively and it is more difficult to reduce poverty; namely, the poor class has a trend of rigidity, which requires more targeted assistance measures.
【Keywords】 decomposition of poverty change; economic growth; inequality; population;
. ① It is also known as the redistribution effect. [^Back]
. ② Source: China Statistical Yearbook (中国统计年鉴) (1992–2001). [^Back]
. ③ Source: China Statistical Yearbook (中国统计年鉴) (2001–2012). [^Back]
. ④ Source: China Statistical Yearbook (中国统计年鉴) (2012–2016). [^Back]
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