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城市劳动供给与出口产品质量升级——“成本效应”抑或“技能效应”

铁瑛1 何欢浪2

(1.上海对外经贸大学国际经贸研究所)
(2.上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院)

【摘要】本文提出人口转型背景下,提升人力资本水平,实现人口红利从“成本效应”到“技能效应”的过渡是应对劳动力供给下降、劳动力成本上升等不利冲击,促进出口产品质量升级的重要手段。理论层面上,在质量异质性理论框架中纳入城市劳动力供给因素,剖析了人口结构转型对企业出口产品质量的影响,刻画出了“成本效应”和“技能效应”两大作用机制。本文构建出地级市层面涵盖人口流动因素的城市劳动供给指标,与高度细化的企业—产品—目的国层面数据进行匹配,构造出城市—产品—目的国这一细化的高维面板数据并据此进行研究。基准的实证研究结论表明:城市劳动参与率对企业出口产品质量具有促进作用;用工成本的上升会削弱这一正向效应,表现为“成本效应”;人力资本的上升则会增强这一正向效应,表现为“技能效应”;这一结论在考虑了加工贸易、出口关系持续性、超级城市、城市产业政策以及多产品企业行为因素后仍保持了高度稳健;在企业层面给出了同样稳健的经验证据。本文的结论不仅从人力资本投资不足这一新的角度解释了“中国出口产品质量变动之谜”,而且意味着在人口转型背景下,要实现出口产品质量升级需要更多着眼于人力资本的投资和劳动力技能的提升,实现人口红利从成本到技能的过渡。

【关键词】 人口结构;城市劳动参与率;出口产品质量;成本效应;技能效应;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“城市人口结构与企业出口行为研究”(18YJC790152); 国家自然科学基金青年项目“我国稀土出口政策的效果评估:基于PTM的视角”(71403164); 上海市哲学社会科学规划课题一般项目“贸易自由化促进中国企业创新质量提升的影响机理及路径研究”(2018BJB015); 上海市教育发展基金会和上海市教育委员会“曙光计划”项目“对外经济开放和中国企业创新的数量和质量研究”(18SG51);

City labor supply and firm’s export quality improvement: cost effect or skill effect

TIE Ying1 HE Huanlang2

(1.Institute of International Business, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics)
(2.International Business School, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics)

【Abstract】This paper studied the impact of city labor supply on the export product quality and tried to find how the mechanism was. Against the background of population transformation, improving human capital and realizing the transformation of demographic dividend from cost effect to skill effect was an important way to deal with the adverse impact of the decline of labor supply and the rise of labor cost and promote the upgrading of export product quality. In theory, we introduced city labor supply into the framework of Hallak and Sivadasan (2013) and characterized cost effect and skill effect as the theoretical mechanism. Then, this paper constructed a labor participation rate indicator that covered population mobility on the city level, the rate indicator could be matched with detailed firm-product-destination data, and finally, we could construct a detailed high-dimensional panel data on the city-product-destination level for research. The benchmark results showed that the city labor participation rate had a positive effect on the export product quality of firms; rising labor costs would weaken this positive effect which we defined as cost effect and the rising of urban human capital would strengthen this positive effect which we defined as skill effect. This conclusion remained highly robust after consideration of the processing trade, continuity of export relations, megacities, city’s industrial policy and multi-product firms’ behavior. We further gave the same robust empirical evidence at the firm level. Our conclusion not only explained the paradox of export product quality in China using insufficient investment in human capital with a new perspective, but also implied that in the context of demographic structure transformation, the upgrading of export product quality required more attention to human capital investment and labor skill upgrading.

【Keywords】 demographic structure; city labor participation rate; export quality; cost effect; skill effect;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Program of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Ministry of Education, China (18YJC790152); National Natural Science Fund of China (71403164); Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project (2018BJB015); “Dawn Program” of Shanghai Education Development Foundation and Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (18SG51);

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    Footnote

    [1]. ① This setting mainly comes from Schumpeter’s theory of innovation and Rogers’ theory of diffusion of innovations; that is, at the labor productivity level, R&D innovation plays a fundamental “qualitative” role while human capital accumulation has the characteristic of “endogenous production process” and mainly plays the role of “quantity” accumulation. [^Back]

    [2]. ① The export product quality is taken average at the corresponding level and the standard errors in the regressions are also clustered at the corresponding level, which applies below if it is not specified. [^Back]

    [3]. ① It is calculated with the ACF method by GB-2 industry. [^Back]

    [4]. ② It is the ratio of interest expenses to sales income. [^Back]

    [5]. ③ We obtain the former by dividing the sum of foreign capital and the capital of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan by the paid-in capital and the latter by dividing the sum of state-owned capital and collective capital by paid-in capital. [^Back]

    [6]. ④ It is expressed with the average annual fixed capital balance divided by the number of employees [^Back]

    [7]. ⑤ Adopting the HS4 dimension is to highlight the firm heterogeneity. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1002-4670

CN: 11-1692/F

Vol , No. 09, Pages 26-39

September 2019

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • Introduction
  • 1 Theoretical model
  • 2 Data, variable construction and empirical path
  • 3 Empirical Analysis
  • 4 Research extension
  • 5 Conclusion and implication
  • Footnote

    References