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中国农产品比较优势的动态变化:1995—2013年

许为1 陆文聪1

(1.浙江大学中国农村发展研究院)

【摘要】本文基于CEPII-BACI数据库1995-2013年HS-6位数贸易数据,采用分布动态法,从比较优势流动性和向高附加值产品转换升级两个方面,实证分析了中国农产品比较优势在“量”和“质”上的动态变化。研究发现:中国农产品比较优势具有较强的流动性,主要表现为大部分优势农产品的比较优势呈现下降趋势,尤其在加入WTO之后出现了加速下降态势,且下降幅度高于其他主要出口国,2013年仅14.5%的农产品具有比较优势;劣势农产品的比较优势尚未得到改善,形成新的比较优势概率较低;农产品比较优势集中在低技术含量、中低档质量的产品,向高附加值产品升级转换缓慢。

【关键词】 农产品比较优势;分布动态法;流动性程度;技术复杂度;产品质量;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 浙江省自然科学基金重点项目“外部冲击对中国粮食供求的影响研究:基于全球农业市场分析模型”(LZ13G030002);

Evolution of the comparative advantage of China’s agricultural products from 1995 to 2013

XU Wei1 LU Wencong1

(1.China Rural Development Institute, Zhejiang University)

【Abstract】This paper examines the empirical dynamics of comparative advantage of China’s agricultural products in the period of 1995– 2013. Based on the HS 6-digit trade data from CEPII–BACI database, this paper uses the distribution dynamics approach to quantify the magnitude of changes in comparative advantage and further investigates whether these changes have been towards technologically more sophisticated or higher quality products. We found that the comparative advantage of Chinese agricultural products exibited substantial volatility, mainly characterized by declining comparative advantages in most of the products with previous comparative advantages, with a larger degree than other major exporting countries. In particular, the declining trend was accelerated after China’s accession to the WTO. In 2013, China had comparative advantage in only 14.5% of the agricultural products. With a low probability of improving its original comparative disadvantage and acquiring new comparative advantage, China’s comparative advantage of agricultural products remains in low sophistication and low quality products, and slow in introducing higher value added products.

【Keywords】 comparative advantage of agricultural products; distribution dynamics approach; mobility of comparative advantage; technological sophistication; product quality;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Key Project of Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (LZ13G030002);

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    Footnote

    [1]. (1) Due to limitation of space, this paper does not show the results in detail, and interested readers can acquire them from the author. [^Back]

    [2]. (2) Due to limitation of space, this paper does not show the results in detail, and interested readers can acquire them from the author. [^Back]

    [3]. (3)Due to limitation of space, this paper does not show the results in detail, and interested readers can acquire them from the author. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1002-4670

CN: 11-1692/F

Vol , No. 09, Pages 3-15

September 2016

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • Introduction
  • 1 Research methods and data descriptions
  • 2 Empirical research results
  • 3 Conclusions and policy enlightenment
  • Footnote

    References