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TPP对中日韩自由贸易区的可行性及建设路径的影响研究——基于GTAP模型的分析

刘朋春1 辛欢1 陈成1

(1.华东师范大学金融与统计学院 200241)

【摘要】文章基于GTAP模型的模拟结果,在动态博弈的理论框架下考察了可以通过何种路径促成中日韩自由贸易区,并分析了TPP对中日韩自由贸易区建设路径的可能影响。通过分析得出以下结果:TPP会给中国经济带来负面影响,且此种负面影响会随TPP成员范围的扩大而增加;TPP可能对中日韩FTA的建设路径产生影响,但并不会彻底阻碍中日韩FTA的成立,只是对中日韩多边自由贸易实现的可能路径带来一定限定;无论TPP的谈判结果如何,中日韩3国均可以通过轮轴-辐条结构的FTA实现多边自由贸易。

【关键词】 TPP;中日韩自由贸易区;建设路径;GTAP;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 上海日本研究交流中心2015年度课题项目; 上海大学生创新活动计划项目(201410269113);

Potential impacts of TPP on feasibility and constructional path of China-Japan-South Korea FTA: study based on GTAP model

LIU Pengchun1 XIN Huan1 CHEN Cheng1

(1.School of Finance and Statistics, East China Normal University 200241)

【Abstract】Based on the simulation results of the GTAP model, this paper first examines what are the feasible paths to lead to the multilateral free trade (MFT) between China, Japan and South Korea, and then considers TPP's potential impacts on the feasible paths of China-Japan–South Korea FTA in a dynamic game model. The main conclusions are as follows: the establishment of TPP will exert negative influences on China's economy, and the negative influence will expand with the increase of TPP numbers. Although TPP will have some impacts on the feasible paths of China-Japan–South Korea FTA, it will only restrict the paths, not block them. Whether TPP is established smoothly or not, China, Japan and South Korea can always achieve multilateral free trade through hub-and-spoke free trade agreements.

【Keywords】 TPP; China–Japan–South Korea FTA; constructional path; GTAP model;

【DOI】

【Funds】 2015 Subject Program of Center for Japanese Studies and Exchange in Shanghai ; Planned Project for Innovation Activities of Shanghai University Students(201410269113);

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    Footnote

    [1]. 1 Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei are included. Since the data of Brunei has not been listed in GTAP database separately, other three countries are only chosen into one group. Due to a smaller size of the economy in Brunei, the fundamental impact has not been caused by the analysis results. [^Back]

    [2]. 2 Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Peru and Chile are included. [^Back]

    [3]. 3 After 2007, the FTAs of China, Japan and South Korea that have been signed with other countries or taken into effect were many, but the bilateral trade volume for the target countries and China, Japan and South Korea has been lower in the proportion of the total trade. The FTA that may produce the larger potential impacts from the trade of Japan and South Korea has been considered. [^Back]

    [4]. 4 This paper is deemed as the FTA, without distinguishing the specific content of negotiations. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1002-4670

CN: 11-1692/F

Vol , No. 11, Pages 96-108

November 2015

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • Introduction
  • 1 Literature review
  • 2 Model framework, methods and data
  • 3 Analysis for the impacts of TPP’s negotiation outcomes on the feasible paths to China–Japan–South Korea FTA
  • 4 Conclusion and implications for China
  • Footnote

    References