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“一带一路”与跨境贸易人民币结算发展的地区差异——基于中国各省份面板数据的研究

董有德1 李晓静1

(1.上海大学经济学院 200444)

【摘要】无论是“一带一路”建设规划范围,还是跨境贸易人民币结算量分布,在全国范围内都表现出了明显的地区差异。本文将UNCTAD(2002)提出的业绩指数计算方法首次运用到货币结算研究领域,计算了各省份开展跨境贸易人民币结算业务的业绩指数,在此基础上采用Dagum(1997)提出的基尼系数分解方法测算了东、中、西三大地区的地区内和地区间差异,并利用可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)实证检验了影响全国及三大地区跨境贸易人民币结算量的主要因素。研究表明:东部地区的业绩明显优于中部和西部地区,中部地区表现最差;虽然三大地区的整体差距有所减小,但地区间差距贡献率一直保持最大;三大地区的主要影响因素也表现出较大差异。“一带一路”建设规划范围主要集中于东部和西部地区,将给中部地区的业务开展带来一定挑战,各地区应加强合作,全面提高跨境贸易人民币结算业绩水平,加快人民币国际化进程。

【关键词】 “一带一路”建设;跨境贸易人民币结算;业绩指数;基尼系数;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 国家社科基金青年项目“我国FTA战略对外贸与经济的影响研究”(13CJY002);

One Belt and One Road and regional disparity of RMB settlement of cross-border trade: a study based on provincial panel data in China

DONG Youde1 LI Xiaojing1

(1.School of Economics, Shanghai University 200444)

【Abstract】Both the planned areas of the “One Belt and One Road” initiative or the distribution of RMB settlement volumes of cross-border trade show obvious regional differences. Based on the regional difference, extending the method to calculate the performance index and using the Dagum (1997) method, this paper computes the performance index of all provinces and regional differences of RMB settlement of cross-border trade in China, and examines the main influencing factors. The results show that the performance index of the eastern area is apparently higher than that of the central and western regions, and that of the western region is the worst; the overall gap of all the three regions is shrinking but the contribution rate of regional difference is always the highest; the main influencing factors are differentiated obviously from region to region. The planned area of “One Belt and One Road” centers on the eastern and western regions, and this would challenge the central region. Therefore, different regions should enhance cooperation to raise economic development level and RMB settlement of cross-border trade performance level and accelerate the process of RMB internationalization.

【Keywords】 One Belt and One Road construction; RMB settlement of cross-border trade; performance index; Gini coefficient;

【DOI】

【Funds】 The Youth Project for National Social Science Fund “The Study on the impact of China’s Strategy on Foreign Trade and Economy (13CJY002);

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    Footnote

    [1]. 1 According the dividing standards made by the China's National Bureau of Statistics, the eastern China includes Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan, 11 provinces in total; the central region covers Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan, 8 provinces in total; and the western region covers Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang, 12 in total. [^Back]

    [2]. 2 The FDI performance index was put forward by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in 2002. The definition of FDI performance index is: the ratio of a country’s FDI share in global FDI flows to its GDP share in global GDP. If the index is more than 1, it means the country’s good performance in attracting FDI; if the index is 1, indicating normal performance; and if the index is less than 1, meaning bad performance. [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1002-4670

CN: 11-1692/F

Vol , No. 11, Pages 3-14

November 2015

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • Foreword
  • 1 Literature review
  • 2 Analysis on regional disparity in eastern, central and western China
  • 3 Empirical study on factors of influence in three regions
  • 4 Conclusion and enlightenment
  • Footnote

    References