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TPP背景下世界高端制造业贸易格局演化研究——基于复杂网络的社团分析

许和连1 孙天阳1

(1.湖南大学经济贸易学院)

【摘要】本文对TPP背景下中国和美国在亚太地区高端制造业出口情况对比分析,并构建1992-2013年世界高端制造业贸易网络,利用Blondel算法对世界高端制造业贸易网络的社团划分及其演化进行分析。研究表明2009年美国加入TPP以来,美国高端制造业出口占亚太经济体高端制造业进口比重显著提高,中国所占比重有所下降。世界高端制造业贸易网络社团的演化经历了“发达国家主导”、“亚太地区崛起”和“后金融危机”三个阶段,2009年后由原欧非、亚太两个社团分裂为欧非、亚太、TPP三个社团,TPP社团的迅速崛起和美国的强势加入吸引了东亚经济体的纷纷加入,中国却被拒之门外。美国在亚太高端制造业角逐中已抢占先机,中国面临在亚太高端制造业生产网络中被边缘化挑战。

【关键词】 TPP;高端制造业;复杂网络;社团分析;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 ; ;

Evolution of world's high–end manufacturing trade pattern against background of TPP: a study based on community analysis of complex networks

XU He–lian1 SUN Tian–Yang1

(1.Hunan University, School of Economy & Trade)

【Abstract】This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the high–end manufacturing exports of China and the U.S. in the Asia–Pacific region under the background of TPP, constructs a world trade network of the high–end manufacturing from 1992 to 2013, and studies the division and evolution of the network through Blondel algorithm. The study showed that the proportion of the high–end manufacturing exports of the U.S. to the Asian–Pacific economies increased significantly since the US joined the TPP in 2009 while that of China has declined. The evolution of the world's trade community network of high–end manufacturing experienced three stages, which were “dominance of the developed countries,” “rise of the Asia–Pacific region”and “post-financial crisis.' In 2009, the former Europe–Africa and Asia–Europe communities split into three communities: Europe–Africa, Asia–Europe and TPP communities. The rapid rise of the TPP community and the joining of the United States attracted the East Asian economies to join in, but China was excluded. With the TPP platform and “reindustrialization,” “double export”and other measures, the United States has seized the initiative, which made China face the challenge of being marginalized in the high–end manufacturing network in the Asia–Pacific region.

【Keywords】 TPP; high-end manufacturing; complex network; community analysis;

【DOI】

【Funds】 ; ;

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This Article

ISSN:1002-4670

CN: 11-1692/F

Vol , No. 08, Pages 3-13

August 2015

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2. The influence that the TPP brings to high-end manufacturing export in Asia-Pacific region with China and the U.S. included
  • 3. Research on the influence that the TPP brings to global high-end manufacturing trade communities
  • 4 Major conclusion and policy implication
  • References