Can the productive service industry become new momentum for China’s economic growth
(2.Research Centre for Macro Economy, Suning Institute of Finance 100025)
(3.Institute of Industrial Economics, CASS 100836)
【Abstract】In recent years, the scale of service industry has been continuously increasing, the share of which in the national economy has exceeded 50%, and the proportion of the producer service sector is close to one third. With the arrival of the post-industrial period, the proportion of the service industry and producer service will continue to rise. Therefore, in the new normal, as the mainstay of the national economy, the fact that whether the development of service industry can support the rapid growth of China’s economy has drawn much attention. Based on the dynamic mechanism of economic growth, this paper calculates and decomposes the total factor productivity growth rate (TFP index), in order to explore the impact of technological progress and industrial structure transformation on overall macroeconomic productivity and macroeconomic growth, by which to prove the significance of producer service sector as the new momentum of China’s economic growth in the future. The results show that due to the higher level of technological progress and the strong gathering of capital and labor, the producer service sector could enhance the overall macroeconomic total factor productivity, and then promote the sustainable growth and high-quality development of national economy, so it can well be the new momentum for the high-quality growth of the Chinese economy under the New Normal.
【Keywords】 producer service; growth accounting; TFP index decomposition; new momentum; high quality growth;
. ① The year-efficiency model characterizes the situation that the production capacity of various capital with different service span changes (decaying) as time goes by, generally depicted by the hyperbolic mode, which can be expressed by, where T is the (maximum) service span of capital; n is the current year; and the parameter b ≤ 1 determines the form of the function. The “retirement model” shows that various types of capital retire (or wear out) after their service span, usually depicted by logarithmic normal distribution, it can be expressed by, where σ and μ represent standard deviation and mean value of the logarithmic normal distribution respectively,; m and s are the mean value and standard deviation of the normal distribution behind the logarithmic normal distribution. The sign m represents the average service span; s is located in [m/4，m/2], and the bigger it is , the steeper the distribution is. [^Back]
. ② PIM can be expressed as, where Ki,tP is the productive capital stock of the ith capital in period t; hi,τ and Fi,τ represent the year-efficiency model and retirement model respectively; INi,t represents the investment expenditure for the ith capital in period t, that is fixed capital formation; qi,t,0 is the price index. [^Back]
. ① User cost can be expressed as, where μi,t,s represents the user cost of the ith capital in period t; the subscript s represents the span that the capital has served; q is price of asset; r is rate of return on capital and d is depreciation rate. The sign ρ represents the change of asset price. The right part of the equation also reflects the conversion relationship between user costs of one kind of capital in different periods. [^Back]
. ② Limited by space, here we do not give the measurements of capital input and labor input. [^Back]
. ③ From 2010 to 2014, the data of working hours of the producer service sector and the secondary industry rose slightly by comparing with the last period, while that of the consumer service sector declined greatly. The reason why the contribution rate of labor declined was that working hours spent in the consumer service sector in recent years showed an obvious downward trend, and its contribution degree declined gradually, even to be negative. [^Back]
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