环境政策效益评估中的嵌入效应——以北京市雾霾和沙尘治理政策为例

全世文1 黄波2

(1.中国社会科学院农村发展研究所, Beijing , China 100732)
(2.中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院, Beijing , China 100872)

【摘要】嵌入效应会显著地影响经济学家对环境政策的成本效益分析, 但目前国内鲜有研究在评估环境政策效益时对嵌入效应进行识别和讨论。本文首先在一个扩展的健康生产函数基础上分析了环境政策之间存在嵌入效应的原因, 进而以北京市雾霾和沙尘治理政策为例, 设计了三个选择实验组来验证嵌入效应。随后, 本文采用随机参数Logit模型对各组样本进行了估计, 污染物边际价值在组间的显著差异证实了嵌入效应的存在。如果忽略嵌入效应, 降低雾霾和沙尘的平均边际价值分别会被高估36.87%和67.62%。在模型中控制调查对象的偏好异质性以后, 高估程度有所下降, 但嵌入效应仍不能完全消除。本文的研究结论意味着政策制定者和研究者在评估环境政策的效益之前, 需要谨慎地处理嵌入效应, 虽然不同的环境政策可能在技术目标上指向相互独立的不同污染物, 但污染物之间的价值相关性仍然会导致嵌入效应, 进而影响评估结果。

【关键词】 环境政策; 嵌入效应; 空气质量; 选择实验; 价值评估;

【DOI】

【基金资助】 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“基于选择实验的北京市雾霾治理公共政策研究” (批准号16XNB023)

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    [1]. (1) 这三个主要的偏差:一是假想偏差, 即调查对象在虚拟的决策情景中倾向于高估其支付意愿;二是支付意愿和受偿意愿的分离;三是本文关心的嵌入效应。 [^Back]

    [2]. (1) 函数被称为“干预函数”, 反映了干预政策或措施在技术层面上对污染物水平的影响。当然, 在环境经济学的研究中, 干预函数本身就是一个研究目标, 它是评价环境政策效益的基础。例如, 曹静等~ ([24]) 讨论了北京市尾号限行政策对改善空气质量的影响, 席鹏辉和梁若冰~ ([25]) 讨论了油价变动对空气污染的影响。由于干预函数并非本文的研究目标, 本文假设这一函数所反映的技术效果是提前给定的。 [^Back]

    [3]. (2) 另一种情况是, 多项环境政策的目标或效果存在重叠, 即。在这种情况下, 两项政策本身的替代关系就会直接导致嵌入效应。 [^Back]

    [4]. (1) 在正式进行选择以前, 本文还设计了一个关于北京市大气污染状况的描述说明, 在此过程中, 向调查对象展示了空气质量良好和空气污染的对比图。 [^Back]

    [5]. (2) 根据国家环保部颁布的《环境空气质量指数 (AQI) 技术规定 (试行) 》 (HJ 633—2012) , AQI轻度污染对应的PM2.5浓度为75ug/m3, 对应的PM10浓度为150ug/m3 [^Back]

    [6]. (1) 在第三个检验H03中, 由于第一实验和第二实验组中的样本并未一一匹配, 所以w11和w22无法直接相加。但后文在进行该检验时是基于模拟的边际价值数据, 由于w11和w22均服从正态分布, 所以, 随机相加的w11+w22也服从正态分布。而w31和w32却可能因偏好相关导致w31+w32不服从正态分布, 但后文的估计并未验证出个体对雾霾和沙尘的偏好具有显著的相关性。 [^Back]

    [7]. (2) 范围不敏感是指调查对象不关注评估对象被定义的“范围” (或“度量单位”) , 仅关注评估对象的相对优劣, 这会导致评估结果的效度大幅下降[14]。本文在实验设计中对雾霾和沙尘的区别仅在发生天数上存在差异 (见表3) , 那么, 如果本文的结论支持范围不敏感的说法, 应该有w2/w1≈1.8;而估计结果显示w1显著高于w2, 据此可以认为调查过程中不存在范围不敏感。 [^Back]

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This Article

ISSN:1006-480X

CN: 11-3536/F

Vol , No. 08, Pages 23-39

August 2016

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Article Outline

摘要

  • 一、引言
  • 二、理论分析
  • 三、实验设计
  • 四、数据与计量模型
  • 五、降低空气污染的经济价值及嵌入效应检验
  • 六、结论与启示
  • 脚注

    参考文献