A mathematical analysis of the export potential of Chinese agricultural products to five Central Asian countries
【Abstract】In recent years, the economic and trade cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries is developing rapidly. Based on the three economic models of trade specialization coefficient, constant market share and GM (1, 1), this paper analyzes the comparative advantage of agricultural trade between China and the five Central Asian countries and also the growth factors of China’s exports of agricultural products. This study reveals that there is a strong complementarity in agriculture between China and the five Central Asian countries and China’s agricultural products have certain comparative advantage over Central Asian countries. Although there are factors impeding the export growth, the agricultural trade of both parties will continue the fast-growing momentum by 2020. To strengthen the agricultural cooperation between China and Central Asian countries and maintain the export advantage of China’s agricultural products, China should strengthen the regional cooperation and utilize the great opportunity brought by the Silk Road Economic Belt, identify market positions, foster strengths and circumvent weaknesses.
【Keywords】 China; five Central Asian countries; exports of agricultural products;
. ① Cao, S. Master thesis, Xinjiang Agricultural University, (2012). [^Back]
. ① Contribution rate = the value of various effects (positive value) / change in exports [^Back]
. ① Drag rate = the value of various effects (negative value) / change in exports [^Back]
1. Zhang, N. Euroasia Economy (欧亚经济), 1 (2014).
2. Cao, S. & Zhang, J. Russian Central Asian & East European Market (俄罗斯中亚东欧市场), 12 (2012).
3. Li, Y. & Li, T. Russian Central Asian & East European Market (俄罗斯中亚东欧市场), 12 (2012).
4. Han, J. (ed.) China Food Security and Agricultural Going Out Strategy Research (中国粮食安全与农业走出去战略研究(. China Development Press, (2014).