A prediction of SCS award and China's possible countermeasures

LI Jinming1

(1.South China Sea Institute, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China 361000)

【Abstract】The South China Sea arbitration is about to announce a final ruling. Since China has taken the position of neither participating in the case nor accepting the award, most experts believe that the outcome of the arbitration should be biased towards the Philippines. Recently, however, as for Taiwan has put forward its viewpoint that the Taiping Dao (Itu Aba island) is an “island” but not a “rock,” the final decision of the South China Sea arbitration might be influenced to a certain degree. Some scholars have thus made various predictions of the verdict. It is hereby suggested taking seriously all kinds of possible countermeasures as a response regardless of the credibility of the prediction, so as to defend China's territorial sovereignty and integrity.

【Keywords】 the South China Sea arbitration; the Philippines; final ruling; prediction; countermeasures;

【DOI】

【Funds】 2015 China Association of Marine Affairs Fund Project (CAMAJJ201502); 2016 key project of Fujian Social Science Planning Office (FJ2016A021).

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(Translated by ZHANG Liang)

    Footnote

    [1]. [1] [2] Jurisdiction over 7 of the 15 issues and the Philippines welcome the tribunal’s ruling of the South China Sea, (Philippines) World News, (2015-10-31). [^Back]

    [2]. [3] The first day of the court hearing of the South China Sea arbitration case, the Philippines: China’s claim has no international law evidence, (Philippines) World News, (2015-11-26). [^Back]

    [3]. [4] The end of the second round of the hearing of the South China Sea case, the tribunal announces the ruling next year, (Philippines) World News, (2015-12-2). [^Back]

    [4]. [5] Summary of the report of Taiwanese “Central News Agency” on March 23: Ma Ying-jeou invites the Philippines and the arbitrators to visit Taiping Dao, (Philippines) World News, (2016-3-24). [^Back]

    [5]. [6] According to the report of Taiwanese “Central News Agency” on March 24: The arbitration gets related with Taiping Dao due to the whole lawyer team’s insistence, (Philippines) World News, (2016-3-27). [^Back]

    [6]. [7] According to the report of Taiwanese “Central News Agency” on March 25: If the tribunal thinks Taiping Dao is not “rock”, analyst: the Philippines might lose the arbitration case, (Philippines) World News, (2016-3-27). [^Back]

    [7]. [8] According to the report of Taiwanese “Central News Agency” Manila on March 23: Challenge Taiping Dao’s position and the Philippines’ calculation is revealed, (Philippines) World News, (2016-3-24). [^Back]

    [8]. [9] With the U.S. and Japan’s intervention, experts: the Philippines becomes the secondary role, (Philippines) World News, (2015-11-28). [^Back]

    [9]. [10] The Philippines and China’s South China Sea dispute will have the ruling, Carpio: there might be three versions, (Philippines) World News, (2016-4-1). [^Back]

    [10]. [11] According to the report of Taiwanese “Central News Agency” Manila on April 10: Philippine justice talks about the three outcomes of the arbitration case again, there might be independent arbitration of Taiping Dao’s position, (Philippines) World News, (2016-4-10). [^Back]

    [11]. [12] According to the report of Taiwanese “Central News Agency” Washington D.C. on April 15: the U.S. think tank predicts the outcome of the South China Sea arbitration case, (Philippines) World News, (2016-4-17). [^Back]

    [12]. [13] The Philippines and China’s South China Sea dispute will have the ruling, Carpio: there might be three versions, (Philippines) World News, (2016-4-1). [^Back]

    [13]. [14] The U.S. and the Philippines’ declaration: the South China Sea arbitration is also effective to China, (Philippines) World News, (2016-1-15). [^Back]

    [14]. [15] The spokesman of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Hong Lei reclaimed China’s opposition to the arbitration case submitted by the Philippines and refused to participate in, (Philippines) World News, (2015-2-19). [^Back]

    [15]. [16] Indonesian increased troops in Natuna Islands to guard against “threats from the north,” (Philippines) World News, (2016-2-27). [^Back]

    [16]. [17] Malaysian media: more than one hundred Chinese vessels entering Nankang Ansha, (Hong Kong) Ta Kung Pao(Philippines version), (2016-3-26). [^Back]

    [17]. [18] According to Reuters: Kerry could not change Cambodia’s position in the South China Sea issue, (Philippines) World News, (2016-1-27). [^Back]

    [18]. [19] ASEAN refuses American “South China Sea regulations,” (Hong Kong), Ta Kung Pao (Philippines version), (2016-2-18). [^Back]

    [19]. [20] The U.S. battleships entered Meiji Jiao’s 12 nautical miles of sea area, (Philippines) World News, (2016-4-3). [^Back]

This Article

ISSN:1008-6099

CN: 44-1124/D

Vol , No. 03, Pages 28-34

June 2016

Downloads:4

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Influence of Taiping Dao’s nature over the South China Sea arbitration
  • 2 Prediction of the South China Sea arbitration outcome
  • 3 Suggestions on the countermeasures
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