Prospects for the world economy in 2035

Richard N. Cooper1

(1.Department of Economics in Harvard University)

【Abstract】This paper predicts the trend of inertial elements of economic growth in next two decades, focusing on demographic factors (aging and differential decline in population growth), economic growth, and changes in expenditure patterns caused by the increase in income. According to the prediction, the world will be significantly richer and the demands for food, energy and other resources will increase as well. These demands will be satisfied through increased supply, energy conservation, environmental protection and technology innovation, and thus no shortage will emerge. Contagious diseases, terrorist actions and local wars will cause significant disturbances, but the world economy will be resilient to such shocks. China will rise and the relative importance of Europe and Japan will decline.

【Keywords】 demography; growth; energy; food; forecast; future;


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    [1] Originally published in 1930, reprised in Lorenzo Pecchi and Gustavo Piga (eds.). Revisiting Keynes. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2008.

    [2] W.S. Woytinsky & E.S. Woytinsky. World Population and Production. New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1953.

    [3] See the reviews by Vaclav Smil. Energy at a Crossroads. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003; and Clark Abt in R. Cooper and R. Layard (eds.). What the Future Holds. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.

    [4] See for example Robert Fogel. Foreign Affairs. July/August 2007.

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CN: 22-1180/C

Vol 24, No. 01, Pages 3-10+118-126

January 2015


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