【摘要】美国特朗普政府退出TPP并未使得该协议完全废除, 美国以外的成员国正在谋求签署“全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定” (CPTPP) 。美国TPP政策的调整会给中国带来怎样的影响亟待评估。面对TPP的冲击, 中国正在推进的“一带一路”倡议能否成为缓解TPP负面影响的应对举措呢?文章采用全球多区域CGE模型, 对TPP和“一带一路”的经济影响分别进行量化评估, 对比分析不同政策的国际经济效应。研究发现: (1) 从实际GDP和居民福利来看, 无论美国是否退出TPP, 中国都是该战略的重要损害国。 (2) 从贸易畅通视角推进“一带一路”有助于沿线国家的经济增长和福利水平改善, 能够大幅缓解TPP对中国经济的负面冲击。 (3) “一带一路”有助于中国高耗能行业的出口, 钢铁行业、纺织服装业和化工行业的出口扩张效应尤其明显。 (4) “一带一路”实施对韩国的负面影响较大, 因此韩国若能加入该倡议, 将使其获得显著的经济增长和福利改善。文章的研究结论既对促进“一带一路”的发展和扩张有积极作用, 也为化解中国高耗能行业的产能过剩提供了有益参考。
【基金资助】 国家自然科学基金项目 (71503001) ; 安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题 (2016ZD010) ; 安徽省自然科学基金项目 (KJ2018ZD043) ; 安徽省社科规划项目 (AHSKZ2014D01) ;
Can the Belt and Road Initiative alleviate the negative impact of TPP on China?
【Abstract】TPP is an important part of Asia-Pacific strategies of the Obama Government. However, with the new President Trump taking office in the White House, the progress of TPP has met certain hindrance. Though Trump withdrew the United States from the TPP, it does not mean that the TPP is completely aborted and traditional allies still negotiate on the signing of the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). How will the adjustment of the TPP policy by the United States affect China? What economic benefits will the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that China put forward to counter potential impacts of the TPP bring to the countries along the Belt and Road? Can the BRI become an effective measure for China to counter the TPP? Further, what kinds of differentiated industrial impacts will the TPP and the BRI bring to China and what kinds of challenges and opportunities? Analyses and discussions of these questions will be very helpful of enriching China’s strategies to counter the TPP as well as accelerating the progress of the BRI. With a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and the latest database GTAP 9.0, this paper quantitatively evaluates the economic effects of the TPP and the BRI in terms of the actual GDP, the social welfare and the import and export trade. The study sets six policy scenarios centering on whether the U.S. should be back to the TPP and how will China push forward the BRI to selectively analyze benefits and losses of China under different macro-economic effects. The main conclusions of the paper are as follows. (1) Judging from actual GDP and residents’ welfare, China suffers from such strategy no matter the U.S. returns to the TPP or not. In the scenario of GPTPP, the actual GDP of China decreases by 0.019% and the residents’ welfare level decreases by USD 4.111 billion. (2) Promotion of the BRI is able to effectively alleviate the negative impacts of the TPP on Chinese economy: when the BRI and the TPP both exist, the actual GDP of China increases by 0.055% and the residents’ welfare level increases by USD 11.465 billion. (3) From the perspective of unimpeded trade, promotion of the BRI can stimulate outputs of energy-intensive industries of China, especially the textile and garment industry, the steel and metal industry and the chemical industry, which is helpful to alleviate the problem of overcapacity in the energy-intensive industries of China.(4) Implementation of the BRI has strong negative impacts on South Korea, but if South Korea could participate in the BRI, significance improvement can be realized in its economic growth and residents’ welfare level. The marginal contributions of this paper can be elaborated from three aspects. First, this paper introduces both the TPP and the BRI to comparatively analyze international economic effects of different regional economic cooperation modes, which can provide a valuable technical reference for China to promote the BRI in the context of the TPP. Second, this paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the withdrawal of the U.S. from the TPP, and the impact of the CPTPP on China is also discussed, which will be useful for China to adopt reasonable measures to cope with the CPTPP. Third, the impacts of the TPP on different countries or areas along the Belt and Road are quantitatively evaluated to reveal benefits and losses of these countries or areas under different the TPP strategies, which is helpful in promoting those countries to participate in the BRI to cope with the negative impacts of the TPP.
【Keywords】 CPTPP; Belt and Road Initiative; GTAP model; energy intensive industries; unimpeded trade;
【Funds】 Project of the National Natural Science Foundation (71503001); Project of Innovative Development Research on Social Sciences in Anhui Province (2016ZD010); Project of the Anhui Provincial Natural Science Fund (KJ2018ZD043); Social Science Planning Project of Anhui Province (AHSKZ2014D01);
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