Infectious Kinetics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (COVID-19)
【Abstract】Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred as a new pneumonia of unknown cause at the end of 2019 and outbroke in the next two months in Wuhan. The scientific and effective understanding of the epidemic development is essential for its prevention and control. In this paper, a segmented Logistic model was built to describe confirmed cases, deaths and cured cases of COVID-19 based on the official data from National and Local Health Commissions. It is estimated that the total number of confirmed cases nationwide will reach 81,370 to 102,800, and the total number of deaths will reach 3,177 to 3,960, with a final mortality rate of 3.9%. All confirmed cases nationwide (deaths excluded) are expected to be cured on May 7, 2020 under current medical conditions and diagnostic criteria. The model can fit and forecast the trend of COVID-19 epidemic at two stages and provide a scientific basis for the epidemic prevention and control.
【Keywords】 COVID-19; Infectious kinetics; Logistic model;
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